BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 6:22 AM EST780
FXUS61 KBOX 111122
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
622 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers end this morning leading to a mild afternoon. Dry
cold front tonight ushers in below normal temperatures for mid
week with blustery conditions expected Tuesday. Mainly dry this
week with some shower chances increasing Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6:30 PM Update...
Showers linger on the Cape and Islands at this hour but will
quickly drift out to sea. With downsloping westerly winds
developing this morning, clouds should clear out quickly by
15/16Z west to east. Temperatures are already quite mild, in
the upper 50s and low 60s, and will have no issues warming into
the mid to upper 60s!
Previous update...
Rain associated with a cold frontal
passage overnight comes to an end quickly through 12Z this
morning, and in fact has already ended for portions of NW MA
where less than a few hundredths of rain fell overnight.
Southern CT, RI, and the south coast of MA look to see another
round of light precipitation through sunrise as another push of
rain makes its way east from the NYC metro, but drier air north
of the MA Pike should suppress any additional QPF south of
highway. Overall, expecting perhaps another 0.10" of rain at
most, with storm totals coming in between a few hundredths and a
quarter of an inch of rain when all is said and done. Clouds
will scatter out quickly this morning, leading to abundant
sunshine this afternoon.
Southwesterly flow shifts to the west around daybreak which will
lead to some downsloping, but with temperatures already running in
the 60s across portions of RI and SE MA, it wont be much of a lift
for temps to climb into the mid to even upper 60s across the coastal
plain today; in fact, its not out of the question a few localities
across SE MA hit the 70F mark this afternoon. Cooler temps are
expected in the high terrain, but overall today will be the warmest
day of the week.
Winds will peak around 40mph this morning along the south coast with
strong 925mb centered over the area. Fortunately, the jet shifts
east, leaving much less impressive winds to mix down this afternoon.
Winds should diminish after the lunch hour, gusts decreasing from 20-
35mph to 10-15mph by sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Brief warmup will be short lived as another shortwave dives south
out of Quebec this evening and overnight tonight. Cold front
associated with the shortwave is expected to be a mainly dry frontal
passage as PWATs are depleted, to around a half inch, behind
the first frontal passage this morning. A few orographic showers
are possible for the Berkshires, but otherwise, not expecting
much more than a sprinkle to fall overnight. 850mb temps crash
from +3C at sunset to -3C at sunrise but a slow downward trend
in dewpoints, only falling to the upper 30s by sunrise, will be
the limiting factor in how chilly we get overnight, with lows in
the upper 30s and 40s expected.
Tuesday...
Tuesday night's cold front ushers in much drier, colder Canadian
air for the mid week period, as dewpoints continue to crash into
the 20s. Temperatures will really struggle to increase from the
early morning lows, climbing into the 40s and low 50s by
Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds will return with mixing up to
~875mb expected. Wind gusts between 25-30kt are expected for
much of the day across our land zones, with gusts to 35kt+ over
the waters.
With low dew points, and very blustery conditions, increased fire
weather concerns are likely to return on Tuesday given the quarter
of an inch of rain received Sunday night/Monday morning will
evaporate quite quickly.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday
High pressure moves overhead, allowing the pressure gradient to
relax and the gusty winds to end. Skies turn mostly sunny, but
highs remain in the mid to upper 40s with the cold airmass overhead.
Thursday
Guidance continues to trend completely dry for Thursday, even as a
shortwave trough exits the Great Lakes. Global guidance continues
to push the shortwave energy well south of southern New England as a
closed trough retrogrades into northern New England. Much of the
same airmass remains in place, but more clouds than the sun will
keep temps in the low to mid-40s.
Friday and Beyond.
Closed upper-level low that retrogrades into northern New England
stalls Friday into Saturday, keeping the region under cyclonic
vorticity. The cyclonic vorticity likely wont result in any
appreciable rain but may keep more clouds around than the sun. A
large upper-level ridge looks to push out the stalled trough
sometime Saturday into Sunday, which will help moderate temperatures
back into the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z Update...
Today...Moderate Confidence
Quick improvements to VFR expected behind the rain shield, with
only pockets of MVFR possible until about 15-16z. Winds
gradually turn west, but gusts up to 25 knots start in the
morning after 12z.
Tomorrow Night...High Confidence
VFR. West winds becoming northwest with a frontal passage after
06Z. 20 knot gusts develop behind the front with the northwest
wind shift.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
MVFR with light rain through about 11-12z. There could be brief
periods of IFR overnight, but confidence was not high enough to
include in TAF. Quick clearing to VFR after 12z this morning.
Winds become gusty behind the clearing up to 25 knots.
KBDL TAF... High Confidence in TAF.
MVFR with light rain through about 10-11z. CIGS quickly return
to VFR after 11-12z, then winds turn west and become gusty up to
20 knots.
Outlook/Monday through Wednesday/
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today
SCY conditions persist over the south coastal waters, but
west/southwest winds gradually diminish during the day. Seas
also gradually subsiding, but above 5 ft across the southern
waters into the evening.
Tonight
A cold front crosses over the coastal waters tomorrow night
resulting in a wind shift to the northwest. Expect gusty
northwest winds behind the front with sustained speeds of 20
knots and gusts from 20 to 25 knots.
Tuesday
Quite blustery across the waters, particularly the eastern
waters, with gusts up to 40kt by Tuesday evening. A Gale Watch
is in place for the eastern waters given this and will continue
overnight Tuesday night. Seas will grow as well to between
6-9ft.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
While some relief was felt across CT and RI where up to 0.25" storm
total QPF was tallied, much of MA was not able to cash in on the
refreshing rain, which has led to the continuation of fire weather
concerns for the state. An SPS has been issued for ONLY
Massachusetts today.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
for ANZ231-250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-
237.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KP/KS
NEAR TERM...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KP/KS
MARINE...KP/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 6:22 AM EST----------------
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