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293 FXUS64 KMOB 122012AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL212 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday night)Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024The warm yet dreary weather continues through Wednesday night across the forecast area. Upper troughing swings across the eastern U.S. glancing the forecast area Wednesday night while a surface cold front steadily works its way across the forecast areaWednesday night. Ahead of this front, temperatures stay warm witha small diurnal cycle owing to the extensive cloud cover and highmoisture content across the area. Highs will only be topping out in the lower to middle 70's, yet lows stay in the middle to upper 60's for most locations. Warmest temperatures can be expected nearer the coast.Overall prospects for severe weather remain pretty low for Wednesday night as the cold front moves in from the west and a warm front lifts into the coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida panhandle. As of right now it appears adequate shear of around 35 to 40 knots will be present for organized convection, along with adequate hodograph curvature in the low levels characterized by around 100 to 150 m2/s2 of sfc-1km SRH. Despite this, there still remains uncertainties on how much instability can work into the coastal counties prior to forcing lifting out. 500 to 1,000j/kg of instability appears probable based on latest HREF guidance prior to fropa, but if forcing aloft has lifted out by the time the instability moves in then any severe threat would be greatly diminished if not negligible. If instability moves in quick enough, a low end threat would exist for a damaging wind gust or two and/or a tornado across the coastal counties late Wednesday night.Once again we will be monitoring the potential for some minor coastal flooding around low portions of the US 90/98 Causeway at the I-10 interchange and eastbound I-10 on ramps where splash over and standing water could occur. Latest forecast guidance has sites in that area peaking around 1.6 to 1.9 feet MHHW which would be near or above minor coastal flooding criteria. If confidence increases on this potential a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed in future forecast packages. A High risk of rip currents will go back into effect tonight, lasting through Thursday. MM/25&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024An upper trof progresses across the eastern states through Thursday night and is followed by an amplifying upper ridge building into the eastern states through Saturday. A large positively tilted upper trof meanwhile advances into the western half of the CONUS, though this soon breaks down into an upper trofwhich progresses across the extreme northeast states through Monday along with a well defined shortwave which lifts into the central Plains. The shortwave system lifts off across the Great Lakes and weakens through Tuesday while a large and fairly broad upper trof evolves over the central states. The eastern states upper ridge steadily weakens meanwhile and by Tuesday will been dampened significantly, but there is another "feature" which couldplay a part in this weakening which is a potential late season tropical system that might move into the southeastern Gulf. Granted, there is a huge amount of uncertainty with something suchas this at such a long time range, but we will continue to monitor.A cold front will have progressed through much of the forecastarea by Thursday morning and continues through the remainder ofthe area by the early afternoon. Much drier air will be flowinginto the area with the frontal passage, so have gone with slightchance to chance pops for much of the area Thursday morning thendry conditions follow for Thursday afternoon and night. Dry conditions continue through Monday night as rather dry air remainsstubbornly in place over the area. Small pops return to along andwest of I-65 on Tuesday as a weak cold front may move into the area along with some modest improvement in deep layer moisture. A High Risk of rip currents is expected Thursday and Thursday night,followed by a moderate risk for Friday and Friday night, and a low risk for Saturday and Saturday night.Thursday will have highs ranging from the lower 70s inland to theupper 70s near the coast. Somewhat cooler air flows into the areain the wake of the front, and lows Thursday night will be near what used to be seasonable values and range from the mid 40s inland to mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Friday will be near seasonable values as well with highs in the upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s near the coast. A modest warming trend follows for the remainder of the period, and by Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with lows Monday night ranging from the mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s near the coast. /29&&.MARINE...Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024A light to moderate easterly to east-northeasterly flow continues today. A moderate to occasionally strong easterly to southeasterly flow is expected tonight through early Thursday ahead of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for much of the marine waters Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Light to occasionally moderate offshore flow will exist for Thursday into Friday in the wake of the cold front before becoming light easterly flow for the weekend. MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 67 74 69 77 52 73 49 74 / 20 50 80 20 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 69 74 72 77 56 72 53 72 / 10 20 80 30 10 0 0 0 Destin 69 76 72 79 58 74 55 74 / 10 10 60 30 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 64 74 65 75 46 72 43 74 / 20 20 80 20 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 64 73 64 74 47 71 44 74 / 30 60 90 10 0 0 0 0 Camden 64 73 63 71 46 68 42 71 / 20 20 80 20 0 0 0 0 Crestview 65 76 66 80 49 76 44 76 / 10 20 60 30 0 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
