PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 12:49 AM EST476
FXUS61 KPBZ 120549
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1249 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
With the cold front through the area, northwest flow will bring cold
air into the region as high pressure settles in. This will keep the
area dry through midweek with somewhat seasonal temperatures.
Warmer and drier for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cloudy with shower chances overnight with another cold front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Stratocumulus will continue to develop and move in from the
northwest in a shallow mixed layer with moisture trapped beneath it.
The cold front has moved south and through the area. Moisture is
still expected to be shallow and will not factor into any measurable
precip. However, a couple instances of light drizzle can't be
ruled out. In fact, the only locations that the NBM is
suggesting that 0.01 is possible would be just north of/or
northern Mercer and Venango County.
High pressure passing to the north will spell subsidence and lighter
winds through the short term with no notable weather concerns.
Today will start with post-frontal stratocumulus as saturation is
enforced with low-level cold advection. There is high uncertainty in
when these clouds erode, with the most optimistic of scenarios
having clearing by noon, and the most pessimistic having clearing by
8pm. A cloudier scenario would tend towards cooler daytime highs
than the official forecast tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and seasonable Wednesday.
- Rain likely Thursday, potentially lingering through Friday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Clearing Tuesday night with calm winds will lend to a 80% to
100% chance of below freezing temperatures on Wednesday morning.
Though high clouds may increase through the daylight hours
Wednesday, highs should still manage to get around or slightly
above average in daytime heating.
The is high confidence in another passing disturbance Thursday
with rain chances lingering into Friday as the parent low
weakens and drifts southeast. Most ensembles show at least some
rain, but chances of less than 0.5" are roughly 75% to 90%. So
more likely than not, this will not be a big precipitation
producer.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Highs a few degrees above normal for the weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
As we head into the weekend, all ensemble clusters support
ridging, which would suggest a return to dry and warm. The main
uncertainty will be in the amplitude of the ridge axis, which
will largely determine just how warm conditions will get. For
now, above average temperatures seem likely.
By early next week, there is uncertainty in whether a wave will
overtop the ridge. If the event that it does, precipitation
chances and slightly cooler temperatures may return. Otherwise,
warm and dry will persist.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Passage of a secondary cold front between 08z-13z today will
foster generally broken MVFR stratocu across the region through
18z. There is a 20-30% probability for IFR cigs at FKL/DUJ
between 11Z-16z as boundary layer flow becomes northerly at may
foster enough lake fetch to lower cigs.
Otherwise, expect dry advection and high pressure to slowly
erode area stratocu through the day and offer VFR at all
terminals by 22z (only 10-20% probability of MVFR lingering to
this time). Look for northwest wind to remain gusty through the
early afternoon while veering, before gradually diminishing
tonight as its direction continues to shift to the NE.
.Outlook...
VFR under the influence of high pressure is favored through
Wednesday.
Rain will overspread the region Thursday morning
ahead of a warm front that will lend to widespread restrictions.
The associated low pressure system will exit east by Friday
morning, though residual cold advection in NW flow may maintain
restriction potential into Friday night.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Milcarek/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 12:49 AM EST---------------
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