CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 6:32 AM EST049
FXUS61 KCLE 121132
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
632 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east across the region today, followed
by another low pressure system and surface cold front by
Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will return by the
end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mainly quiet near term period is expected as high pressure
builds east across the Great Lakes today. Still dealing with lake-
effect cloud cover this morning given the chilly air mass
overhead, characterized by 850 mb temperatures around -3
degrees C, though precipitation chances appear to be rapidly
diminishing as mid- level moisture remains limited. Below-
average temperatures are expected today underneath the chilly
air mass, with highs in the upper 40s and brisk, northeast winds
around 10 to 15 mph. Tonight will likely be the coolest night
so far this Fall, with lows falling into the upper 20s areawide
underneath clear skies (slightly warmer lower 30s along the
lakeshore).
High pressure will continue to influence the region on
Wednesday. Warm air advection will begin increasing ahead of
the next system, marking a return for above- average
temperatures in the mid-50s across the area. Increasing high
cloud cover from the south and southwest is anticipated by the
mid to late afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough extending south to the Mid-Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday evening will curl northeast towards the Great Lakes
Region. Deep southerly flow in advance of this trough will provide a
moisture source for rain to expand eastward Wednesday night as a
warm front lifts north. A good period of isentropic ascent with
forcing from a 45 knot low level jet provides high confidence is
rain during the late Wednesday night through Thursday period. Areas
east of a Ashtabula to Youngstown line will probably not see rain
beginning until Thursday morning. The closed upper level low will be
over Northwest Ohio by midday on Thursday, moving southeast towards
Maryland by Friday morning. Dry air aloft does wrap in from west to
east on Thursday but showers are likely to continue with a -23C cold
pool at 500mb. This contributes to marginal elevated instability
during the afternoon and can not rule out a few thunderstorms.
Confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast yet but
will be something to watch. Coverage of rain will keep temperatures
in the mid 40s(east) to mid 50s(west). Rainfall amounts through
Thursday are expected to be around a half to three quarters of an
inch.
While surface low pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on
Friday morning, a trough extending to 700mb lags behind across
eastern Lake Erie. The airmass is not cold enough for pure lake
effect but some enhancement is likely to continue into Friday with
shallow lift and cyclonic flow. Scattered showers will be more
likely across Northeast Ohio with temperatures in the low 50s for
highs.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The weekend starts off dry as a large area high pressure builds
overhead. Temperatures will be near average values on Saturday with
a warming trend getting underway on Sunday as another ridge extends
north to the Great Lakes Region. A deep trough moving into the Great
Basin amplifies a ridge over the eastern United States with
southwesterly flow kicking in on Sunday. Long range models suggest
this trough may close off in the desert southwest with the northern
stream wave approaching the Great Lakes as early as Sunday night.
Quality of moisture return with this next system is a little more in
question and just have low pops heading into Monday for now.
Temperatures are likely to reach the upper 50s and possibly 60
degrees by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Primarily MVFR ceilings across the TAF sites this morning,
associated with lake-effect clouds. Ceilings will begin to
scatter out with conditions expected to return to VFR by early
to mid- afternoon.
Winds are generally out of the north this morning, 10 to 15
knots with periodic gusts around 20 to 25 knots. Winds will
gradually shift towards the northeast, then east through today
and tonight, diminishing to around 10 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in periods of rain Wednesday night
through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Northerly winds on Lake Erie range from 15-25 knots early this
morning. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until 10 AM west of
the Lake Erie Islands and 1 PM for the areas east of the Islands.
The Advisory on the western basin may be able to be cancelled early
but want to allow at least a couple more hours for the waves to
subside. Elsewhere the ending time generally looks good as winds
drop below 15 knots but waves will remain choppy with northeast
winds.
High pressure shifts east into Quebec on Wednesday and winds will
develop out of the southeast at 10-20 knots behind it. A weakening
area of low pressure will move from Lake Michigan east across Lake
Erie Thursday and towards Pittsburgh Thursday night with a trough
lagging back towards the lake through Friday. A 40 knot low level
jet will be over the lake on Thursday morning but an inversion and
southerly wind direction will keep winds from fully mixing down.
There is a low chance of needing a Small Craft Advisory for a few
hours Thursday morning. After that, winds shift around to the
northwest by Thursday night with speeds in the 10-15 knot range
Friday into Saturday. High pressure will shift east on Sunday with
southerly return flow returning again.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142-
143.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...KEC
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 6:32 AM EST---------------
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