JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 1:12 PM EST695
FXUS63 KJKL 111812 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
112 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected through Wednesday.
- The next chances for rain will be from Wednesday night into
Thursday in association with another cold front.
- Temperatures will be near or above normal through next weekend,
except Tuesday when highs will be a few degrees below normal.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
Cooler air behind a cold front has been slower to arrive from
around the Mountain Parkway south. This has allowed temperatures
there to rise to or above the previously forecast highs. Upward
adjustments to highs and hourly temperatures were made across
this region for the afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 1051 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
A cold front continues to gradually move deeper into the Southern
Appalachians with drier air advecting in and clearing skies over
eastern KY. Some minor adjustments were made to hourly temperature
and sky grids based on recent observations. However, no additional
changes were needed at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 757 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
The cold front passed KJKL a little before 12Z, and it's still
demarcated very well on radar and satellite imagery. Precip has
ended across the area and there's been no regeneration this far
west along the front early this morning. Precip has been removed
from the first period of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 435 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
A surface cold front and a weakening upper level trough are
advancing southeast through the JKL forecast area early this
morning. This combo supported showers during the night, with most
of the remaining activity now in far southeast KY. The cold front
is unusually well defined both with a wind shift and a fine line
showing on radar. There have been a few showers along the front
over northern Kentucky overnight. Won't rule out something popping
up as the front moves through, and at least a 20% POP has been
maintained ahead of it, but the highest probability early this
morning remains with the exiting activity near VA.
Satellite imagery shows the fropa being effective at bringing
clearing skies, and models suggest that will be the case even in
our area today (unlike many times in the cool season).
Temperatures will only show a modest drop from yesterday, but dew
points will be much more responsive, falling from around 60
overnight to the 40s today.
Another cold front, currently over MN and WI and associated with
short wave trough aloft in that area, will head southeast and is
forecast to drop south through KY tonight. The main short wave
energy will remain to the north and the front will be weakening as
it comes through. Without much moisture left behind the first
front, nothing more than perhaps some stratocu is expected with
the second fropa. Behind the second front, still cooler and drier
air will arrive for the day Tuesday.
Have maintained continuity in the forecast for Monday night by
including a bit of valley fog. However, there is uncertainty
concerning its occurrence or extent. The ground is currently damp
from the rain which is ending, but there will be some opportunity
for drying today. We no longer have any substantive transpiration,
so any addition of moisture will need to come from streams or the
ground. Cold/dry air advection behind the second front will
inhibit decoupling and fog development. However, won't rule out
good radiating conditions overcoming this and allowing deeper
valleys to try decoupling and possibly fogging.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
The large scale flow pattern aloft to begin the extended period will
be quite active. In the east, a large trough of low pressure is
forecast to be exiting northern New England, and heading out to sea.
Just to the west, we will see strong high pressure in place, both
aloft and at the surface, extending from southeastern Canada, south
and westward across the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys,
and all the way down to the Gulf coast and down the Mississippi
River Valley. Further west, low pressure will be organizing over the
central Rocky's and western Plains. Another trough will be moving
onshore in the Pacific Northwest, with weak high pressure aloft
between the two western troughs. This pattern will gradually shift
eastward Wednesday and Wednesday, with the central low pressure
system moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
during that time. As this initial moves eastward, a surface cold
front will accompany it. This boundary will bring rain showers to
eastern Kentucky from early Wednesday evening through early Thursday
morning. Once the upper level low pressure system moves across the
Great Lakes, the front will be pushed off to our east, allowing
additional moisture to wrap around the upper low, leading to
persistent scattered to numerous rain showers across our area. This
round of rain will gradually taper off Thursday and Thursday night,
and should finally exit to our east by early Friday morning.
We should see another period of dry weather across eastern Kentucky
Friday through Sunday morning, as another strong ridge of high
pressure settles over the region. After seeing dry weather most of
the upcoming weekend, another area of low pressure will be poised to
move in from the west Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. This
second system will bring another bout of rain to our area heading
into the first of the new work week. Temperatures during the
extended period will range from slightly below normal on the cooler
days, to several degrees above normal on the warmer days. Nightly
lows will be quite cool, with a few nights seeing lows in the 30s.
Some valley locations may even fall into the lower 30s Tuesday night
and Friday night. The other nights will have lows varying from the
upper 30s to the lower 50s. Most nights we will see conditions
favorable for ridge valley temperature splits along with areas of
valley fog, especially after our two bouts of rain. The only weather
hazard to speak of will be locally dense fog any visibility
restrictions it might cause.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
VFR was present across the area at issuance time with cumulus
between 4 and 5kft agl present from near or just south of a KSJS
to KJKL to KLOZ to KSME line. These should gradually mix
out/dissipate through 23Z. However, some additional low and mid
level clouds are expected to move across the area after 00Z near
and ahead of an approaching cold front. That cold front should
cross the area between 02Z and 10Z. VFR ceilings should prevail
with this, and winds should remain at generally under 10KT through
the period and should shift from west or west northwest to
northwest and north as the front passes and then trend to the
northeast to end the period as high pressure builds in from the
Great Lakes. Some fog development in deeper valleys generally
south of the Mtn Pkwy with reductions to MVFR or IFR is probable
during the 03Z to 13Z period, but this is not expected to affect
TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 1:12 PM EST---------------
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