MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 11:51 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...127
FXUS64 KMOB 091751
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1151 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
VFR conditions are generally prevalent across the region with the
exception of localized MVFR ceilings that are impacting areas
closer to the coast. A broken upper cloud deck will continue to
spread over our region and isolated rain showers will be possible
over interior portions of southeast MS/southwest AL this afternoon
into the evening hours. Ceilings should lower to MVFR to IFR
thresholds again late tonight into Sunday morning over much of
the area, with isolated to scattered showers redeveloping,
especially across the Mobile Metro region where likely showers
will be possible. /22
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 451 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly shift eastward
across the eastern CONUS today and tonight. Southwesterly flow
aloft will meanwhile increase over the Mississippi Valley region
ahead of a potent low pressure system lifting across the central
Plains. High resolution and short range model solutions indicate
that the plume of deep layer moisture that has been in place over
our area will tend to lift northward today, with better quality
precipitable water values of 1.5" to 1.75" becoming oriented over
interior portions of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL
by this afternoon. A lower PWAT airmass (1.0" to 1.3") should
advance from southeast to northwest into coastal portions of the
CWA by this afternoon. Isolated to scattered rain shower
development looks to remain confined to northern portions of our
forecast area through this afternoon, so we will maintain low POPs
mainly north of a Waynesboro, MS to Andalusia, AL line. We expect
another day of unseasonably warm temperatures that may reach near
record levels in the lower to mid 80s, especially if some breaks
in the cloud cover occur during the afternoon. Records for
November 9th are 83 degrees at Mobile (last occurred in 2023) and
85 degrees at Pensacola (2020).
Southwesterly flow aloft will increase over our forecast area
tonight as the potent upper level storm system lifts from the
central Plains to the Upper Midwest. The drier airmass will still
hold in place across much of our region through the evening, but
deeper moisture should advance back into western portions of our
forecast area late tonight into Sunday morning and into the
majority of our region by Sunday afternoon. Shortwave impulses
embedded within the southwesterly to westerly flow aloft and the
improving moisture quality will allow for an increasing chance of
rain showers across our area late tonight and especially into the
day Sunday. Lows tonight will range in the mid to upper 60s over
interior communities and around 70 degrees to the lower 70s along
the coast. Highs on Sunday may trend downward slightly into the
upper 70s to lower 80s given the increased rain coverage.
A High Surf Advisory will remain in effect along the Alabama and
northwest Florida beaches where surf breakers up to around 5 feet
will persist through Sunday afternoon. The high rip current risk
will also continue along area beaches through the weekend and into
Monday and Monday night. /21
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 451 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
The first half of the forecast will certainly be soggier than the
second half as we will likely dry out by mid week. Westerly flow
will remain in place into early next week with a subtle shortwave
trough progressing across the Ohio Valley on Monday. This
shortwave should be enough to draw remnant moisture from what is
now Tropical Storm Rafael northward into the area. At the surface,
a weak boundary will slowly be pushing southeast providing a
focus for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two. However,
the best forcing looks to be displaced further north and overall
rather weak. As a result the best rain chances Sunday night
through Monday night look to be mainly across our northern areas.
High pressure will then build into the central Gulf leading to
another period of dry weather through the remainder of the week. A
few shortwaves are expected to progress through the flow but
given the drier air in place they will just bring re-enforcing
shots of drier air. Temperatures will start the week out warm with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Things cool off by the end of
the week when the front finally pushes through as highs will drop
into the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 70 80 68 80 64 80 63 80 / 20 60 50 40 20 10 0 10
Pensacola 72 79 71 80 68 79 67 79 / 20 40 40 20 20 10 0 10
Destin 71 80 71 80 70 81 68 79 / 20 20 30 20 20 10 0 10
Evergreen 65 80 65 80 61 80 58 79 / 10 40 20 30 20 10 0 10
Waynesboro 65 79 65 79 59 79 58 80 / 30 40 30 30 10 0 10 10
Camden 65 77 65 79 59 78 58 77 / 20 40 30 40 20 10 0 10
Crestview 66 82 66 84 63 82 61 81 / 10 20 20 20 20 10 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 11:51 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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