LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 3:04 PM EST494
FXUS63 KLMK 112004
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Mostly dry week ahead other than numerous showers Wednesday
night. Temperatures slightly warmer than normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
Tonight high pressure will build from the upper Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes and spread southwestward to Texas, providing
the Ohio Valley with mostly clear skies and a light north breeze
that will bring in cool, dry air. Fog formation was fairly sparse
this morning and that is expected to be the case again tomorrow
morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s in
southern Indiana and central Kentucky to the lower 40s near the
Tennessee line. There's about a 20% chance of slipping below
freezing in central Kentucky east of US 127 and in southern Indiana
north of IN 56.
Tomorrow the center of the high will drift from Michigan to Quebec,
sending light ENE breezes into the middle Ohio Valley. There will be
more cloud cover tomorrow than today, but we'll still have at least
partial sunshine. The ENE breeze and added clouds will result in a
cooler day, with highs mostly in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
===== Tuesday Night - Thursday =====
Dry conditions are forecast for Tuesday night and into Wednesday
morning as upper ridging will be located across the Ohio Valley.
Mostly clear skycover and cool E flow will translate to temperatures
in the 30s for Wednesday morning. For the daylight hours, the upper
ridge and associated sfc high will be pushed towards New England as
a sharp and deepening upper trough pivots across the central US.
This will result in better WAA taking place on Wednesday, with sfc
winds becoming a SSE component. Temperatures are expected to reach
the 60s during the day.
The associated sfc low will track across the High Plains during the
period, and trail an extensive cold front all the way to the Gulf.
Precip chances return to our forecast area beginning Wednesday
afternoon ahead of the front, but dry air in the lower levels could
very well delay the onset of measurable precip until later.
Confidence on measurable rain increases Wednesday evening, which is
when we'll tap into a better Gulf moisture plume when the low level
jet ramps up. However, guidance is keen on the PWAT plume weakening
as is tracks across central KY by the overnight. The 100 member LREF
gives a 40% probability of exceeding 1.2" PWAT late Wednesday night,
which would be exceeding the 90th percentile of BNA sounding
climatology. Regardless, the overall best chances for widespread
showers will be the overnight hours between Wednesday and Thursday.
Model soundings show little, if any, instability during this time,
with multiple inversions in the column. Given the diurnal minimum
for heating, this wave continues to appear as a widespread rain
event, with little to no thunder mention in the forecast. Temps
overnight will be mild, thanks to the S flow ahead of the front and
plenty of cloud cover. Most readings will be in the 40s, but a few
obs in the low 50s for south-central KY will be possible too.
The cold front will pass through the area on Thursday, and as a
result, will see our winds shift from the warm pre-frontal S flow,
to a CAA regime NW flow. Cloud cover will hang on throughout the day
and the upper trough axis pivots directly overhead, and lower precip
chances will taper off from west to east by the afternoon hours.
Highs will range in the 50s. Dry weather will return for just about
all by Thursday night.
As for rainfall amounts, some areas, but probably not all, will get
an inch of rain. The probability of at least 1 inch of rain is
greatest across south-central KY, but a broad brush 0.75-1.25" is
forecast for the area.
===== Friday - Weekend =====
Clouds associated with the departing upper low will linger in our
east Friday morning, but amplified upper ridging filtering in from
the west should help clear out the clouds by the afternoon. High
pressure and upper ridging will remain for the end of the week and
into the weekend as well. Should end up being a nice weekend, with
daily highs gradually warming into upper 60s by Sunday.
Another wave looks to come sometime late Sunday or Monday, bringing
low-end PoPs back to the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
A weak surface trough will drop south towards the Ohio River this
afternoon and interact with a thin band of enhanced moisture around
2-3k' resulting in scattered stratocumulus development. Can't
completely rule out a high-end MVFR ceiling at the northern TAF
sites, esp LEX, but any ceiling should be brief. Winds ahead of the
trough will come in from the west near 10 knots.
Tonight high pressure will build over the Great Lakes and spread
southward to Texas, providing us with light variable winds and
mostly clear skies. Tomorrow the center of the high will drift from
Michigan to Quebec, resulting in an ENE breeze here. Scattered
stratocu will once again be possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...13
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 3:04 PM EST---------------
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