JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 5:22 AM EST728
FXUS63 KJKL 091022
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
522 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain is expected for late Saturday through Sunday, and again
around the middle of next week.
- Normal to above normal temperatures will occur through the middle
of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 522 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
Aloft, the short term starts out with the persistent, stubborn
ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. and a deepening cutoff low
over the Great Plains. This low tracks northeast through the
Midwest and into the Great Lakes by the end of the period,
effectively flattening the ridge. A surface low follows the same
path as its associated low aloft, while dragging a cold front
eastward into the Commonwealth. By the end of the short term the
front manages to get as far eastward as a CVG to MEM line.
Sensible weather features increasing clouds through the day
today, with a corresponding increase in the threat of rain by late
this afternoon or early this evening. The threat of rain remains
high through the remainder of the short term as the surface front
continues to move eastward towards our forecast area.
Once again, the threat of thunderstorm over eastern Kentucky
appears fairly limited. However, forecast soundings do show an
increase in elevated instability by Sunday afternoon and evening.
In addition, SPC continues to keep a general thunder threat across
our area. Consequently, held onto inherited thunder. There
continues to be considerable fluctuations in model QPF, leading to
lower confidence in this aspect of the forecast. The wide range
of QPF forecasts are related to the organization of the system as
a whole as it passes through the region. Recent model solutions
with more disorganized wind fields/jets (showing less support and
lift aloft) generate lower QPF totals. Synoptic ensembles look
more promising with respect to probabilistic QPF overall as
compared to the HREF (CAM ensemble), which are indicating lower
probabilities for the more significant rainfall. However, more
recent runs of the hrrr have shown an increase in QPF overall, so
perhaps the synoptic models are handling the evolution of the
system better and it will take the CAMs some time to catch up. In
general probabilistic data does appear more promising for the
potential of a good wetting rainfall as compared to past storms
systems through the area in the last few weeks. Thus while
confidence is not high in exact rainfall totals, optimism is
definitely in place for a better chance of seeing a decent
rainfall than not.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
The period begins with a cold front pushing across the Ohio Valley.
This feature will kick off some showers and thunderstorms Sunday
evening. However, as we move through the evening into the overnight
forecast sounding data suggest we loose ice and we see decent lift
from the front in the low levels. This will lead to more light rain
and even drizzle through the remainder of the night. The boundary
will slowly sag southeastward by Monday morning and this will keep
light rain and drizzle going in the far southeast before
diminishing by late Monday morning. Then skies will clear through
the day Monday. Then highs top out in the upper 60s to around 70
Monday afternoon. The ensembles and deterministic guidance
remains in good agreement with an area of high pressure building
eastward Monday night and quasi-zonal flow aloft. There is some
disagreement on the potential for a weak mid-level shortwave, but
at most maybe an increase in higher clouds. Right now this would
set the stage for at least a small ridge/valley split with upper
30s to lower 40s in the valleys and lower to mid 40s on the
ridges.
This quiet weather extends into the mid-week, this as there is good
agreement on mid-level ridging pushing into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday. Then by Wednesday we see the upper level ridging and
surface high pressure push further east. This will lead to a warm day
with highs near 70 degrees and this will be running around 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. This southerly flow will
try to surge some moisture northward ahead of an upper level
shortwave. However, many of the ensemble systems are showing PWAT
values less than 1 inch Wednesday into Thursday. Given this there
has been a notably drier trend in the cold front that crosses the
area by Wednesday night. There is also a notable difference in
timing between some of the ensemble and deterministic guidance
likely because of the differences in blocking to the east. Given
this will lean heavily toward the NBM for PoPs right now which are
generally capped around 60-70 percent chance peaking Wednesday
night. However, if this trend continues could see these PoP values
dropping lower. We see another stretch of dry weather set in to
end the period and highs get back closer to normal values in the
lower 60s to for most on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high
pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Localized river valley fog
will linger through the overnight, but is not expected to impact
any terminals. Otherwise, a considerable amount of thicker high
cirrus will make for on average partly cloudy sky conditions.
Winds will be light and variable through the period though they
will become increasingly more southerly in nature late in the
period as a storm system approaches from the west. In addition,
our western airports, KSME and KLOZ may begin to see some showers
encroaching the area during the last several hours of the forecast
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 5:22 AM EST---------------
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