ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 2:58 PM EST091
FXUS61 KILN 081958
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gradually increasing clouds but still dry weather will dominate
the first part of the weekend as high pressure passes through
the lower Great Lakes and Mid Ohio Valley. An area of low
pressure approaching from the central plains will bring a chance
of rain Saturday night with rain likely on Sunday. Above normal
temperatures will continue well into the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions under NW flow as the region remains along the
leading edge of surface high pressure moving from the central
plains into the lower Great Lakes. Light gusts near and north of
I-70 in a slightly tightened pressure gradient, with high thin
clouds pushing through some areas of the Tri State. Winds across
central Ohio will diminish as the high continues to progress
eastward. Some slow thickening of clouds overnight, as winds
shift from NW to NE. With increasing clouds in the west, less of
a potential for valley fog, but still have a mention along the
Ohio River and in southern/southeast Ohio and portions of
northern KY overnight. Otherwise, slightly warmer overnight lows
especially under the thickening clouds in the lower 40s
near/south of the Ohio River, with mid/upper 30s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing clouds on Saturday ahead of the approaching upper low
and associated frontal system. High pressure will still dominate
most of the day, with winds shifting from SE to SW as the day
progresses. Slightly above normal highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
For Saturday night, the approaching warm front associated with
the low pressure system will bring increasing chance for
precipitation overnight Saturday. So steady temperatures to
start Saturday night and then rising toward sunrise with the
warm front pushing into the region. Some uncertainty with onset
time of widespread rain, as the increased moisture has a pretty
dry airmass to overcome, especially along and east of I-71.
Overnight temperatures in the upper 40s in central Ohio to 50-55
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Two main systems will be working through the region during the long
term. The first system will move through Sunday into Sunday night
and the next system will move through Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday evening.
On Sunday widespread rain showers are expected to move through the
region. Over an inch of rain will be possible in some areas. There
is not much in the way of instability and therefore do not mention
thunder in the forecast. Southerly flow, with wind gusts up to 30
mph, will be possible on Sunday and allow for temperatures to warm
into the 60s. As the cold front moves through Sunday night winds
will become more westerly and precipitation will taper off.
Temperatures will drop down into the 40s, however cloud cover
sticking around for a portion of the night will keep them from
dropping further.
Dry conditions will be in place for Monday and Tuesday. WAA returns
for Monday allowing for above normal temperatures once again. A
weak disturbance will push through Monday night into Tuesday however
moisture is limited with this feature and therefore have dry
conditions. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler as well on
Tuesday from Monday, however still expect above normal temperatures
for highs.
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night will feature an additional
chance for widespread rainfall across the region. Temperatures will
warm into the middle 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday in advance of the
front. The front is expected to move through Wednesday night into
Thursday morning leading to cooler conditions for Thursday with high
temperatures in the 50s. Breezy conditions will be present both
during the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. Some residual more
isolated shower activity will linger on Thursday with the upper
level disturbance. The long term will end on a dry note with dry
conditions present for Friday.
&&
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure building into the area, with scattered mostly
thin Cirrus. Light winds will pivot from NW to easterly through
the forecast period. With a day of sun and drying conditions,
and high pressure abetting a little less low level moisture, not
expecting the somewhat persistent BR and FG that lingered at
KLUK/KILN and KLCK this morning. With approaching clouds
expected to be scattered and mostly thin between 06-12z, still
some potential for higher level MVFR visibilities at the
previously mentioned locations. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions will be possible Sunday into Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JDR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 2:58 PM EST---------------
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