MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 5:38 PM CST ...New AVIATION...040
FXUS64 KMOB 072338
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
538 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Mid level MVFR and higher CIGS across the area will see a drop to
low end MVFR/IFR overnight as temperatures cool. Another round of
light rain showers is possible late tonight into early Friday
morning before a band of drier air moves over the forecast area.
Easterly winds 5 to 10 knots are expected through the forecast, a
bit stronger near the coast.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 351 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Southwesterly flow aloft
will continue through the period as our region remains located in
between an upper-level low over the central US and an upper ridge
over the western Atlantic and Florida Peninsula. This will allow
for deep, tropical moisture (PWAT values around 2.0 to 2.3 inches)
to continue advecting into the local region through, at least,
Friday afternoon. Some drier air may move in from southeast to
northwest later Friday afternoon and into the overnight hours as it
wraps around the northern periphery of Hurricane Rafael, located
over the south central Gulf. Isolated to scattered showers, with an
occasional thunderstorm, will be possible through the remainder of
the afternoon today (best chances over the southern half of the
region). A few spotty showers may linger throughout the night
tonight, with some patchy fog development possible over interior
portions of southwest and south central Alabama. Similar conditions
are expected for Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and
storms possible across the area. Highest rain chances, however, will
be for our inland communities thanks to the aforementioned drier air
moving in from the south during the afternoon. Temperatures will
remain exceptionally warm for this time of year, with highs in the
low 80s and lows only in the upper 60s inland to low 70s near the
coast. A high risk of rip currents will continue through the period.
Additionally, a High Surf Advisory will be in effect starting
midnight tonight and lasting through at least Saturday for surf
heights up to 5-7 feet. As the previous shift mentioned, an
extension to this advisory may become necessary as a secondary peak
of 5-7 foot surf heights may be possible Saturday night into Sunday
night. /96
SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
At least weak upper level ridging continues across much of the
southeastern U.S. on Saturday before deamplifying and shifting
east into the western Atlantic Sunday into Sunday night, while
an upper level trough translates across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. A surface ridge of high pressure will
meanwhile remain oriented along much of the eastern U.S. and
western Atlantic, while TC Rafael slowly moves westward across
the western Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night. A plume of deep
moisture with enhanced precipitable water values up to around
1.75" and weak isentropic ascent will support a low (20-30%)
chance of rain showers in the forecast across southeast MS and
portions of southeast MS and southwest AL on Saturday. Rain
chances look to trend a little higher Saturday night through
Sunday evening given the combination of plentiful deep layer
moisture (precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches)
and ascent courtesy of shortwave impulses translating across our
region within southwesterly to zonal flow aloft. We have continued
to trend PoPs up slightly, now to 30-50% over much of our, with
the highest chances primarily on Sunday (although most of the area
will have a PoP of at least 20 to 30 percent from Saturday night
through Monday. Zonal flow aloft generally looks to prevail across
our region on Monday and may be followed by a building upper
level ridge on Tuesday. Shortwave impulses within the zonal flow
pattern and convergence along a weak surface boundary/trough axis
that may be oriented over our CWA will be the reason for the
continued slight chance of rain showers across much of the area
into Monday. We will maintain the dry forecast for Tuesday with
the ridge axis building over our region. The ridge axis may begin
to shift to our east by Wednesday afternoon as the next upper
level trough axis and associated cold front crosses the
Mississippi Valley region. These features may bring our next
chance of showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, but there is some uncertainty in
the guidance for the middle part of next week.
The unseasonably warm and humid pattern will otherwise continue
through the weekend, with high temperatures on Saturday once again
reaching near record levels in the lower to mid 80s across the
region. Highs by Sunday may trend back down into the mid 70s to
around 80 degrees given the increased rain chances and cloud
cover, but these readings will still be close to record territory
for a few locations. High temperatures will remain above normal in
the upper 70s and a few lower 80s through the middle part of next
week, and a few locations could still be flirting with record
highs. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 60s to low
70s Saturday night, lower to upper 60s Sunday night. A bit cooler
for lows early to mid week, with lows in the mid to upper 50s over
interior areas and in the lower to mid 60s near the coast Monday
night and then in the lower 50s inland to lower 60s coastal
Tuesday and Wednesday nights. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Moderate easterly flow prevails through Friday before becoming a
moderate to occasionally strong east- southeasterly to southeasterly
flow for the weekend. Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly
flow returns for the start of the week. Seas will quickly increase
tonight and linger through Friday. Seas will gradually lower through
the weekend and through early next week. A Small Craft Advisory goes
into effect this evening for our local Gulf waters for seas
building to 7 to 10 feet. /96
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday
for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday
for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Friday night for GMZ655-
675.
&&
$$
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Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 5:38 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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