JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 12:14 PM EST241
FXUS63 KJKL 081714
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1214 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Normal to above normal temperatures will occur through the middle
of next week.
- Rain is expected late in the weekend, and again around the
middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
Minimal changes were needed for the late morning update. Sky grids
were updated based on the latest trends with the clearing from the
north. Otherwise, the latest observations were used for the
initialization of forecast grids.
UPDATE Issued at 800 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
The forecast is in fairly good shape, but have blended in early
morning observed temps and sky conditions for a more accurate
representation over the next several hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 434 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
A cold front has progressed well to our southeast, to western NC.
However, advection of drier air behind the front has been weak in
the lowest levels and low clouds linger over most of the forecast
area, with clearing only making it to near I-64 so far. Drizzle
has also lingered in many places.
There is agreement among models that surface high pressure passing
to our north and supplying drier air from that direction will win
out today. At the same time, upper level ridging will build in
from the west, arriving tonight. The combination will result in
clearing skies today with any lingering drizzle ending in the
morning.
As the upper level ridge crests over the area tonight, high clouds
should begin to spill over the ridge ahead of the next weather
system. Overall, the clouds are likely to remain somewhat thin
and still allow for radiating. That being the case, drier air will
allow for a colder night. Cold air pooling in valleys will lead
to typical ridge/valley differences.
Ridging at all levels will move to our east on Saturday and a
stacked low pressure system will move northeast over the middle of
the CONUS. Deep layer warm air advection ahead of the system will
bring a northward feed of gulf moisture eastward into KY,
resulting in lowering and thickening of clouds. It still appears
that precip will hold off to our west during the day Saturday, not
affecting us until the long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 440 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
The flow pattern aloft to start off the extended will feature high
pressure in place across New England, the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio
and Tennessee Valley's, and portions of the southeastern CONUS. The
high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to the region to
end the week, but will be quickly displaced over the weekend, as a
large and well developed area of low pressure moves quickly out of
the Great Plains and eastward through the Great Lakes and eventually
into New England by the first of the week. A cold front trailing
from the upper low will bring numerous showers, and perhaps even a
few storms, to eastern Kentucky Saturday night through Sunday night.
With the parent system moving so fast, the rain should quickly taper
off Sunday night, and be mostly out of eastern Kentucky by late
Monday morning. However, lingering moisture wrapping around the
backside of the low pressure system, we could see a few stray
showers hanging around our eastern counties late Monday and Monday
night. By early Tuesday morning, another ridge of high pressure
should overspread the region. This second ridge looks to strengthen
and then settle over the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. By
Wednesday morning, however, another strong and fast moving area of
low pressure is forecast to move quickly across the heart of the
nation. This system is expected to pass through the Great Lakes, and
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday and Wednesday night, and will
bring another round of rain to our area Wednesday through Thursday.
This second batch of rain should taper off late Thursday, and be out
of the area by early Friday morning, as the parent low moves away to
our east.
Temperatures during the forecast period look to be a bit above
average, with daily highs in the 60s on tap, along with nighttime
lows in the 50s the first couple of nights. After the first area of
low pressure passes by, much more seasonable air will spill into the
region. This will set the stage for a couple of nights in a row with
lows in the normal upper 30s to lower 40s range. The warmest day
during the period should be Wednesday, when highs could rise into
the upper 60s or even lower 70s around the area. This warm up will
occur in increasing southerly flow ahead of the next approaching
storm system. There will be wind shift during the day on Thursday,
from southerly to westerly, that will allow much cooler air to
invade and push temperatures down to below normal values in the
upper 50s by late that afternoon. This push of cooler will likely
lead to the coldest temperatures during the period, with lows in the
mid to upper 30s possible late Thursday night into early Friday
morning. With a few thunderstorms possible Sunday and Sunday night,
lighting will be a weather hazard to watch out for.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
An abrupt line of clearing continues to move south, having
cleared KSYM earlier this morning, followed by KJKL and KSJS
within the last couple of hours. Skies will clear at KSME within
the hour and then KLOZ around 20z. VFR conditions are then
expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Localized valley
fog is forecast overnight, but is not expected at TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 12:14 PM EST---------------
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