IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 5:47 PM EST726
FXUS63 KIND 072247
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
547 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog along and north of I-70. Fog may become dense
along water ways
- Above normal temperatures to continue through the forecast period
- Rain and a few thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday, with
additional rain chances mid-week next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 316 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
A decaying strato-cu layer still remains over the northern half of
central Indiana, but by this evening, skies should be mostly clear
with surface ridging building. Southern portions of central Indiana
may remain beneath patchy clouds as the cloud cover continued to
develop along and north of a stalled boundary.
With surface ridging building over the region, and skies clearing
efficient diurnal cooling is expected. This will lead to a
pronounced nocturnal inversion and decoupling of the PBL with winds
nearing calm along and north of I-70. This combination of conditions
will also increase fog development especially along river valleys. A
few areas in the Crawfordsville to Lafayette regions may see patchy
frost along with fog, but freezing fog shouldn't be an issue with
surface temperatures remaining just above freezing and ground temps
well above freezing.
Tomorrow, much of the same weather is expected in central Indiana,
just with slightly warmer temperatures as central Indiana's wind
flow becomes largely out of the N/NW, including marginal warm air
advection. Any remaining stratus/fog from overnight subsidence
inversions will likely mix-out by the late morning, with mostly
clear skies in the afternoon. This increased sunshine may lead to
slightly warmer than forecasted temperatures, but given climatology
of early November and consistent N/NW flow, temperatures have been
capped in the mid 60s as of this issuance.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 316 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Long term focus is on another round of soaking rainfall over the
weekend, with additional rain chances mid to late next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal throughout the period, with
potential for some drop back toward seasonal norms toward the end of
next work week.
A large upper low and associated frontal system will lift into the
Great Lakes this weekend, pulling a warm front, narrow warm sector,
and then cold front through the area late Saturday into Sunday.
Widespread soaking rainfall is expected, with most likely amounts
per ensemble means currently in the one half to one inch range, with
isolated higher amounts possible - primarily southeast of the
Interstate 69 corridor. The maximum precipitation chances will come
late Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, primarily Saturday night
into early Sunday as dynamics are at their strongest and some very
modest instability may advect into the area within the
aforementioned narrow warm sector.
Another break of dry weather is expected for the start of the work
week, as another area of broad surface high pressure gradually
traverses the region.
Another frontal system is likely to impact the area mid to late next
work week, though model differences remain substantial at this time
and limit forecast probabilities to the chance category. However,
the intrusion of colder air behind this second system looks to be
more substantial than the weekend system, and this may bring
temperatures back closer to seasonal norms than what has been the
standard as of late.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 547 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Impacts:
- Patchy fog potential between 09-13Z tomorrow. Greatest chances of
occurrence are at LAF/BMG and HUF.
- Otherwise VFR expected.
Discussion:
Diurnal CU across the area had dissipated as high pressure over the
plains slowly builds a ridge axis across Central Indiana. This will
allow for clear skies and light winds through much of the period.
Models suggest dew point depression to fall between 1F-5F toward
daybreak. This combined with the light wind and clear skies may
result in some patchy IFR Fog, particularly near river valleys. Thus
have used a tempo group to account for this.
After morning fog burns off, VFR Conditions will return as high
pressure remains in control of our weather. Forecast soundings and
time heights show a dry column with subsidence as the strong surface
high builds across the area.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 5:47 PM EST---------------
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