ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:15 AM EST075
FXUS61 KILN 071115
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
615 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers may linger in far southeast parts of the local
area this morning as a front stalls near the Ohio River. Dry
weather settles in area wide on Friday as high pressure moves
into the Great Lakes region. The next chance for rain will
arrive Saturday night into Sunday as an area of low pressure
tracks through the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A slowing/stalling front near/south of the OH Rvr will serve as
a focus for ISO/SCT SHRA through daybreak within a corridor
from N KY through the lower Scioto Valley. The best coverage is
expected to evolve from Owen Co KY to Scioto Co OH between
about 09z-15z before the bulk, if not all, of the activity
pushes out of the ILN CWA. Additional rainfall on the order of a
tenth or two will be possible within this corridor.
Drier air will continue to filter in from the N through the near
term period as the front drifts a bit further S into central KY
and WV past daybreak. Cloud cover will linger through the
daytime as some LL moisture remains trapped underneath the
strengthening inversion. This will keep skies mostly cloudy
through late afternoon before some scattering yields
increasingly clear conditions very late in the day.
Despite the extensive cloud cover and cooler air in the post-
frontal environment, temps today will still be a nudge above
normals, with highs generally in the upper 50s (WC OH) to mid
60s (N KY).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Tranquil conditions settle in tonight as high pressure moves
into the OH Vly. A seasonably chilly night is in store as temps
dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight amidst mostly clear
skies. Some fog development may be possible tonight as low-level
flow becomes light/calm, but with the dry air settled in,
confidence on such development outside of river valleys is low
at this time.
Abundant sunshine will allow for temps to reach into the lower
to mid 60s on Friday with light NW flow being maintained.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will pass to the north of the Ohio Valley Friday night
through the day on Saturday. More seasonable temperatures (still
above average) can be expected along with light winds and mostly
clear skies. On Saturday night into Sunday morning, a low pressure
system in the Plains lifts a warm front through the Ohio Valley.
Rain chances increases as a pronounced push of high theta-e air
surges poleward. Dew points may get into the lower 60s on Sunday as
the area briefly enters the warm sector southeast of the low. Rain
chances will remain elevated through much of Sunday evening as a
cold front moves through the area when the low pulls further
northeast. Thunder cannot be ruled out in the warm sector given the
magnitude of the dewpoint surge.
A weak area of high pressure builds in behind the front to start the
work week. Dry conditions are expected and temperatures still remain
above mid November averages. Rain chances increase again during the
second half of the week as another low is forecast to form to our
west.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGs continue to slowly drift to the S in the post-frontal
environment, with a break in the cloud cover stretching across
the nrn terminals early this morning. However, expect that CIGs
further to the N will eventually shift S into the local area
(closer to/near KDAY/KCMH/KLCK) by late morning into the
afternoon before scattering out. Either way, sky conditions will
vary between SCT and BKN at times area-wide, eventually
clearing late in the day. A better push of drier air moves in
toward/past 00z, which will erode any lingering MVFR/VFR cloud
cover and yield clear skies, with just a few cirrus, for the
final part of the TAF period.
Light winds out of the N at 5-7kts will be maintained through
about 00z Friday before subsiding a bit late in the period. Some
river valley BR/FG may lead to VSBY reductions at KLUK in the
several hour period around sunrise.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions will be possible Sunday into Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:15 AM EST---------------
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