CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:54 AM EST471
FXUS61 KCLE 071154
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
654 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will expand into the region today bringing quiet
weather, then building east across the Great Lakes through Saturday.
Low pressure will track from the Central Plains across the Upper
Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, pulling a weak cold front
east across the area by Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustment to reflect
satellite trends of cloud cover.
Previous discussion...Low level cold advection will continue
across the region today ahead of high pressure building in from
the west. A weak trough crosses Lake Erie by sunrise with
satellite imagery showing a good swath of stratus within the
colder air behind the trough. Some expansion of clouds is
expected through sunrise but moisture will be shallow and likely
to scatter out quickly in Northwest Ohio, hanging on into early
afternoon in the east with flow through 925mb out of the north.
Highs today will reflect the cooler airmass and partial cloud
cover with temperatures in the 50s, which are actually near
normal for the first week of November.
Temperatures will drop quickly tonight with light winds to start the
evening, especially inland. Winds will increase some overnight but
with mostly clear skies will expect lows to range from the mid 30s
inland to mid 40s lakeshore. An upper level trough will clip the
eastern Great Lakes on Friday with the surface ridge shifting south
into the Ohio Valley. Westerly winds will increase through the day
with some gusts during the afternoon around 20 mph. Skies will tend
to remain mostly clear except some scattered clouds coming in off
the lake across the snowbelt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term starts off dry as high pressure gradually pushes east
across the Great Lakes toward the Northeast. Low pressure out of the
Plains pushes northeast toward the Upper Midwest through the short
term period. This low will lift a warm front across the region early
Sunday. Cloud cover will be on the increase Saturday afternoon with
PoPs increasing overnight Saturday into Sunday. As the low continues
to move across the Upper Midwest, it will drag a cold front east
across the local area during the day Sunday. Abnormally high PWATs
associated with this system should provide enough moisture for
beneficial rainfall across the region. High confidence in most sites
seeing at least 0.25" of rainfall with up to 0.5-0.75+" possible
from Saturday night through Sunday night.
A warming trend will take place through the short term as the warm
front lifts across the region. Overnight lows Friday night dip into
the low to mid 30s, upper 30s along the lakeshore. By Sunday night,
overnight lows will settle in the mid to upper 40s. A similar trend
in afternoon highs with mid to upper 50s Saturday rising into the
upper 50 to mid 60s by Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aforementioned low and cold front will be east of the local area by
Monday. Northwest flow behind the front along with lingering low
level moisture will provide enough support for lake effect rain
showers to persist through the first part of Monday. High pressure
attempts to establish itself overhead by Tuesday which may bring a
break in any precipitation chances through early Wednesday before
another system approaches from the Upper Midwest. Still some stark
differences between deterministic guidance and ensemble members on
track and timing of this low pressure system, but for now have PoPs
increasing from west to east early Wednesday morning.
Afternoon highs will generally remain in the mid to upper 50s Monday
and Tuesday with the potential for highs in the mid 60s by Wednesday
ahead of our next system. Overnight lows through the long term will
generally remain in the mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
MVFR cloud deck has expanded and will tend to reach FDY and MFD
in the next 2 hours. Clouds are thin and expected to scatter out
through the morning across NW Ohio while gradually lifting to
VFR and lingering into this afternoon for NE Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania. We did have some dense fog and LIFR ceilings at
YNG but visibilities are starting to improve and expect ceilings
to follow. Could see a few other patches of IFR visibilities
through 13Z but the general trend will be improving after
sunrise. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight. Fog will be
limited by winds increasing, especially after 06Z.
Winds are generally northwesterly and will increase to 5-10
knots. Winds will back to southwesterly tonight as high pressure
expands into the Ohio Valley.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers and low ceilings
Sunday through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure builds over the region leading to a brief window of
quiet marine conditions with northwest winds 10-15 knots through this
evening. Winds shift westerly by tonight and increase to 15-25 knots
with wave heights building to 3-6 feet through Friday before turning
northerly Friday night. Will likely need a small craft for nearshore
zones off Cleveland and points east through Friday. Winds turn
northerly by early Saturday morning before becoming easterly
Saturday afternoon while gradually decreasing below 15 knots.
Easterly winds 10-15 knots will increase to 15-25 knots by Sunday
while turning southerly as a warm front approaches the region.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Iverson
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:54 AM EST---------------
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