JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:46 PM EST178
FXUS63 KJKL 062046
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
346 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming week.
- Widespread measurable rainfall is expected through Thursday,
with rainfall totals of about three quarters of an inch possible
over our Bluegrass, to as little as a tenth of an inch of
rainfall along the KY-TN-VA state line.
- A better chance of widespread rain and higher rainfall totals is
possible during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM EST WED NOV 6 2024
Weather front continues to slowly trudge southeast across the area,
the southwestern part will actually move a bit north through
tonight, while the northern part will continue to move east. This
will mean the front will move from a southwest-northeast orientation
to an almost west-east orientation by tonight and tomorrow.
Upper ridging builds to the south and then the west through the
short-term period, which will cause the upper flow to transition
from southwesterly today to westerly or west-northwesterly by Friday
morning. At the surface, after the initial front exits southeast
late tomorrow, a second cold front will move southeast across the
state, and by sunrise Friday morning (the end of the short-term
period) will be moving across southeastern Kentucky.
As for sensible weather, showers will continue through much of the
rest of the afternoon and continue through tonight, with unusually
mild temperatures for early November expected during this time. As
the second front arrives Thursday night, light rain or showers are
again possible but with little in the way of measurable rain, with
clouds lingering through much of the night Thursday night. The
temperature forecast Thursday night is a bit tricky especially in
the north as there is uncertainty on if there is any clearing toward
the Interstate 64 corridor before sunrise, which could impact how
cold it gets Friday morning. Nevertheless, temperatures will trend
lower through the period, but still remain above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM EST WED NOV 6 2024
Friday, model guidance suggests the major large scale feature
over the CONUS being a deep trough centered over the New Mexico
area. This is the same system that produced snow across Utah
yesterday, and currently producing snowfall across Colorado and
other portions of the Intermountain west. Additionally, Hurricane
Raphael at the time of writing, has strengthened into a Category
3 Hurricane, and is interacting with Cuba. This storm is expected
to weaken substantially as it encounters rugged terrain and a high
shear environment. As such, the expected track has shifted from
the previous 24 hours and is now forecasted to shift more
westerly, into the Gulf of Mexico before making a northward turn.
Expect dry conditions across eastern Kentucky on Friday, with
light northerly winds and decreasing clouds through the day. Winds
will begin to shift to more of a northeasterly-easterly wind
though the overnight and into Saturday. Saturday morning,
Hurricane Raphael is currently modeled to make a northwesterly
turn towards the Texas/Louisiana shoreline. The deep trough of low
pressure, near the Oklahoma panhandle by that time, will start to
incorporate some of the moisture from the offshore Hurricane.
This will be seen as a cold-front with enhanced moisture in a line
extending from Iowa down to Louisiana. For Kentucky, increasing
clouds should be observed through the day, starting in the
southwest, and increasing in coverage towards the northeast.
Showers will start to work their way into eastern Kentucky
thereafter, first affecting Wayne, McCreary, and Pulaski counties
near sunset. Showers will increase in coverage and intensity
through the night. Thunderstorm chances will also be possible
Sunday morning along and west of I-75, before spreading eastward
through the day Sunday. The upper level trough is forecasted to be
in the western Great Lakes region, however the left over Rafael
moisture will still be over Kentucky, maintaining categorical
PoPs (70-90%) through the night.
Monday, showers are expected to taper off throughout the morning
and early afternoon, with the cold front making its way through.
After the front moves, a brief reprieve is expected into Tuesday,
before additional shower chances (30-40%) return to the forecast
by mid-week. Confidence is low, due to model discrepancies this
far out.
As for temperatures, expect upper 60s to low 70s through the
extended period, with lows in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST WED NOV 6 2024
Showers will impact TAF sites through much of the TAF period as a
cold front stalls across the area. Ahead of the front, which will
oscillate a bit north and south across the northern half of the
forecast area tonight, VFR conditions with brief reductions to
MVFR/IFR in heavier showers is expected. As the front moves south
overnight through the remainder of the TAF period, more widespread
IFR or lower conditions (cigs and/or viz) are expected with a
more widespread rain. Any mention of thunderstorms were left out
of this TAF package as instability continues to look quite
minimal. Winds will be light and generally less than 5 kts
sustained, with light southwesterly flow ahead of the front and
light northerly winds behind the front.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:46 PM EST---------------
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