ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 3:36 AM EST759
FXUS61 KILN 050836
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
336 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and warm weather will continue today ahead of a cold
front. Widespread showers are expected tonight into Wednesday as
the front moves in. Some rain may linger Thursday behind the
front. Dry weather is forecast to return on Friday with high
pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A slow moving cold front lies near the Mississippi River, while
high pressure remains anchored along the Mid Atlantic Coast. The
ILN area sits under a strong southerly flow between those
systems. Regional radar shows a band of showers draped across
Illinois to Michigan ahead of the cold front. Weather here is
likely to remain dry today due to the slow eastward progression
of the front and showers, and this is supported by the latest
model blend. Winds have stayed gusty early this morning, and are
expected to increase today with gusts around 35 mph being
common. Will continue to mention strong sub-advisory gusts in
the HWO.
Temperatures will continue to be much above normal in this
anomalous pattern featuring robust geopotential heights and warm
advection. Forecast highs in the mid 70s to low 80s may allow
records to be attained this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will be pushing into ILN tonight before stalling
south of the Ohio River by 6 pm Wednesday. Showers can be
expected at all locations under a plume of moisture converging
along the front. A healthy dose of rainfall is predicted,
especially across southern locations where rainfall could reach
1 inch by Wednesday evening. Showers should be confined mainly
to southeast counties by Wednesday afternoon as somewhat drier
air works in behind the front.
Winds will continue to be gusty early tonight before fading
later tonight and Wednesday as the pressure gradient relaxes
along the weakening front.
Temperatures will stay above normal while decreasing compared to
the last couple of days due to the showers, and cold advection
following the front. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s
to low 60s, with highs Wednesday from the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chance of showers will continue across southern counties Wednesday
night into Thursday as a sheared out short wave lifts northeast
which produces a very weak wave along the front south of the area.
High pressure across the Great Lakes that will already be keeping
northern counties dry will then exert influence across the entire
forecast area later Thursday into Thursday night.
Closed low in the southern Rockies on Friday will lift northeast and
weaken as it heads into the Great Lakes on Sunday. This will take
low pressure well north of the region with a trailing front sliding
through the area late Sunday into Sunday night. Continue to see
model spread in the track of the upper feature and even some spread
in timing. This will influence how quickly the next chance of
showers will get into the region. At this stage, think Saturday
should be mainly dry, although cannot rule out some precipitation
spreading in from the southwest late in the day. Then expecting to
be fairly wet Saturday night into Sunday with some lighter showers
lingering into Sunday night and perhaps even into Monday.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs generally in the
60s through the period. Lows will be in the 40s on Thursday and
Friday nights, with clouds and precipitation resulting in somewhat
warmer lows on the other nights.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will remain VFR through most of the forecast, though
clouds and winds increase ahead of a cold front. CVG will see
MVFR conditions near the end of their 30 hour TAF as showers
move in and the lower atmosphere approaches saturation. All
sites can expect surface gusts around 30 knots, and wind shear
will develop under a potent low low level jet. Cloud cover
consisting mainly of mid and high clouds should increase
gradually as the front moves closer.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and VSBYs are possible Wednesday and MVFR
CIGs may persist into Wednesday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Coniglio
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 3:36 AM EST---------------
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