JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 7:05 PM EST384
FXUS63 KJKL 060005 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
705 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures are expected through the remainder of
this week.
- The next chance for widespread measurable rainfall arrives
tonight into Wednesday - lingering into Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding on to the east of the
state while a cold front continues to approach from the west. This
set up a healthy pressure gradient across Kentucky resulting in
breezy south winds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. These winds,
along with ample sunshine, pumped warmth into the area bringing
record high temperatures to the JKL CWA with even the monthly
record high being tied at Jackson at 84 degrees. A band of clouds
has since moved into the area this evening but will be moving out
for a time while additional ones will work in from the northwest
later tonight. Temperatures are falling back from those highs and
now are generally in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, dewpoints
remain elevated in the low to mid 50s most places as winds have
started to settle. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2024
A surface cold front and high-amplitude shortwave disturbance over
the Mississippi River Valley will continue to push east toward the
area. However, the shortwave will encounter massive resistance from
a strong upper high just off the Southeast US coast and get shunted
well north of the area. The lack of upper support will cause the
cold front to slow and become stationary with time to the south
tonight into Wednesday, while the northern part of the front will
continue to push east through the Ohio River Valley. This will cause
the front to hang up over eastern Kentucky Wednesday into Wednesday
night as low-amplitude upper ridging builds north into the Ohio
Valley.
The daily high temperature record has been smashed this afternoon by
at least 5 degrees, and the all-time November temperature record has
been tied, given full sun, strong mixing, and a high-amplitude
ridge/high just to the east of the area. Heading into tonight,
clouds and showers will begin to slowly approach from the west, with
PoPs increasing gradually primarily after midnight, but the best
chances will come primarily after sunrise as the front begins to
move into the northwestern half of the forecast area, with
precipitable water values rising significantly to between 1.50-
1.75", which is near or above daily records for this time of year.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the area during the
day Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night, with the best
moisture and instability for such activity in the afternoon into the
early evening hours. However, with the low-level flow weakening and
better upper support exiting the area with time precipitation should
gradually diminish in coverage. For most, this will bring welcomed
rain given the recent dry trends and increased wildfire activity in
the area. Highest probabilities exceeding 90 percent for QPF
exceeding 0.25" will reside along and north of the Interstate 64
corridor, with a general decreasing trend toward the Virginia
border, where probabilities are as low as 10 to 15 percent, through
7 AM Thursday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2024
At the start of Thursday, look for a positively tilted ridge over
the Western CONUS, with a positively tilted trough over the Four
Corners area. The trough's axis looks to extend north and east up
through the Dakotas and Minnesota area. Elsewhere, a "dirty-
ridge" occupies the Tennessee Valley, and Southeast, with
tropical moisture advecting north. This tropical moisture
advecting northward, will get some aid from the tropical system,
Rafael. Dew points, Thursday, will look to remain in the low to
mid 60s, with about 1.5 inches of Precipitable Water.
Thursday, shower and thundershower chances will be greatest in
the morning, as a weak cold front will depart the area to the
east. Meanwhile, models are hinting at a shortwave passing across
the southeastern Great Lakes during the day.
Friday, eastern Kentucky looks to remain dry through the day, with
shower chances increasing heading into the evening for the southwest.
The upper level trough that was previously modeled over the Four
Corners area, is modeled to deepen, and progress towards the
Missouri area. While there still remains some uncertainty, the
remnants of tropical system Rafael could also converge with the
other system in the Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee area. This is
expected to bring prolonged shower chances Saturday through Monday
next week. WPC currently has a sliver of eastern Kentucky, from
Wayne, McCreary, Pulaski counties, and western portions of
Rockcastle, Laurel, and Whitley counties under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Model guidance shows precipitable water values
creeping up into the 1.6 to 1.75 inch range for Saturday
afternoon. Conditions will continue to be monitored.
As for highs and lows, most areas will see temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s each day Thursday through next Tuesday, with lows
generally ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the night as partly cloudy
skies becoming more cloudy with time. This will mean increasing
chances of MVFR CIGs as a cold front approaches the region with
shower activity moving in from the west primarily after 09Z and
sticking around for most of the day Wednesday amid lowering CIGs.
Southerly winds diminish through the night, with the LLWS
potential around for much of the night due to the arrival of an
h85 jet of 40 to 50 kts. This mixes down better after 13Z
Wednesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 7:05 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
