MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:05 PM CST ...New AVIATION...342
FXUS64 KMOB 041806
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1205 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period
ceilings prevail with isolated light showers through the
afternoon. Winds will remain out of the east to southeast at 10
to 15 knots, gusting over 20 knots at times this afternoon. /13
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Upper ridging remains dominant across the far southeastern U.S.
through Tuesday night. A large upper trough across the central
CONUS ejects northeastward into the Great Lakes region into
Tuesday night, with an attendant surface cold front gradually
washing out and stalling as it progresses into western Mississippi
Tuesday. Some weak isentropic lift will allow for some isolated
showers to form across portions of the area today, returning again
for the day Tuesday. Best rain chances should stay near and west
of the I-65 corridor and into the western Florida Panhandle.
Temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year. High
temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, while
lows remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Afternoon highs top out
in the lower to middle 80's and overnight lows in the lower to
middle 60's inland and middle to upper 60's nearer the coast. A High
risk of rip currents will continue for the foreseeable future.
MM/25
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
A large positively tilted upper trof over the western half of the
CONUS looks to evolve into an upper low centered near the 4
Corners region on Thursday which then ejects off towards the Great
Lakes through Sunday. A surface low is expected to be over the
south central states on Friday and probably follows the upper
system towards the Great Lakes over the weekend. This feature may
bring a cold front out of the Plains, but even if this occurs the
front looks to remain well west of the forecast area through
Sunday. In the meantime, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC
18) is forecast to have reached hurricane strength and be located
near western Cuba Wednesday morning then continues into the
central Gulf through Friday and weakens to a tropical storm.
Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest on PTC 18.
It's important to note that there is a lot of uncertainty with
the trajectory of PTC 18 especially during the Thursday into
Friday timeframe which affects forecast confidence in any
peripheral effects on our area. Abundant Gulf moisture is
anticipated to spread into the forecast region through Friday,
though after this point it's less clear how long this will remain
in place and depends on the eventual movement of (or the remnants
thereof) PTC 18. For Wednesday, have gone with slight chance to
chance pops for the western half of the area tapering to good
chance/likely pops over the easternmost portion where the best
deep layer moisture is anticipated to be in place. Have continued
with slight chance to chance pops for Thursday and Friday due to
uncertainty with the pattern. Will need to monitor for the
potential of High Surf Advisory conditions Thursday into Friday
for surf heights around 5 feet. A High Risk of rip currents is
also anticipated to continue through Friday night. For Saturday
into Sunday, have had to continue with slight chance to chance
pops for much of the area until better confidence with the pattern
develops. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 67 83 68 82 68 82 67 79 / 10 20 10 30 20 20 10 20
Pensacola 71 80 70 79 72 79 70 78 / 10 20 20 50 30 30 20 20
Destin 71 81 72 80 72 80 70 80 / 10 20 40 60 40 30 20 30
Evergreen 62 82 65 81 66 80 64 78 / 0 20 20 40 30 30 20 20
Waynesboro 63 84 62 83 65 80 64 77 / 0 20 10 20 20 20 10 20
Camden 63 82 63 79 64 77 62 75 / 0 20 20 30 30 20 10 20
Crestview 63 85 67 82 67 82 66 82 / 0 20 30 60 40 40 20 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ631-632.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:05 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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