BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 3:42 PM EDT630
FXUS61 KBOX 021942
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
342 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to govern our weather pattern this
weekend, bringing dry weather and cooler than normal
temperatures. Well above normal temperatures in the 70s, along
with windy conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another cold front moves through Thursday, but temps only fall
back into the 60s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
330 PM Update:
Although a strong ridge of high pressure was ridging into the
region, a thin layer of higher RH with increasing cold advection was
leading to partly to mostly cloudy conditions across most of
Southern New England, with less cloud cover over CT. Current temps
generally ranged from the mid 50s to near 60 with NW winds around 10
mph.
For tonight, high pressure will continue to ridge into Southern New
England. It looks like cloud cover should begin to decrease by late
this afternon into early this evening, before trending mostly clear
for the overnight. Still looks to be enough of a NW gradient where
winds could stay up some until after midnight, with lighter winds
and better radiational cooling for the 2nd half of the evening. Cold
advection bring 925 mb temps down to 0 to -3C by 12z Sunday. Should
see a pretty wide range in lows, with most areas in the 20s to
around freezing, although the cities look to stay in the mid to
upper 30s and the Outer Cape and Nantucket in the upper 30s/low 40s
where there looks to be enough of a NW wind around.
Also, a reminder for BOX AFD readers that Daylight Saving Time ends
overnight tonight. Turn your clocks back by an hour before going to
bed this evening, and it's a good idea to check your batteries in
your smoke detectors and your NOAA Weather Radios as well. Of
course, the tradeoff for the extra hour of sleep is that the sun
will be setting around 430 pm starting tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update:
Sunday and Sunday Night:
Center of strong 1030+ mb high pressure moves from western NY into
interior northern New England on Sunday, then settles into southern
New England on Monday. Dry weather again expected with a lot more
sunshine on Sunday, along with falling dewpoints into the mid teens
in the interior. Light northerly winds. Highs in the low to mid 50s,
bringing relative humidities into the upper 20s to the 30s.
Sunday night should feature excellent radiational cooling conditions
with clear skies, very dry air and light/calm winds. Ended up
weighing more of the colder MET MOS guidance for lows with fairly
widespread 20s lows except around freezing for sites at elevation,
the cities and over the Cape and Islands. There could be a few sites
in western MA where lows drop below 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday and Monday Night:
Upper level ridging continues across the northeast Monday with
surface high pressure shifting offshore. 850mb temperatures trend a
few degrees warmer than Sunday, but highs should still remain in the
50s with the light SE surface flow. This combined with mid-level
moisture will bring keep conditions mostly cloudy.
Monday night into Tuesday, weak warm advection turns winds more
southwest. This will bring some weak lift to the region and with
marginal moisture around could support development of isolated
showers. Coverage and amounts will be limited given lacking upper
level support.
Tuesday through Wednesday:
The upper level ridge shifts further east on Tuesday ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. This will position a low level jet
across southern New England. If there is ample mixing this could
bring down gusts 20-30 mph. Model soundings still hint at the
presence of mid-level moisture which if sufficient enough could
limit mixing heights and the extent that the higher winds aloft
translate to the surface. Something to watch as we near closer,
mainly with gusty winds elevating fire weather conditions. It will
also trend warmer Tuesday with highs in the in the 60s with even a
few spots having a shot at 70.
Similar conditions for Wednesday with a continued signal for above
normal temperatures, possibly a few degrees warmer than Tuesday.
This could put highs back toward record territory in places with
highs in the low to mid 70s. Model guidance shows indications of a
weak shortwave moving through; however, most guidance has leaned on
the dry side with lacking upper level support. This could still keep
mid-level moisture around and elevated dewpoints. Despite the
marginal moisture about, the potential for breezy condtitions and
mild temperatures will be it another day to keep an eye on to see if
it trends drier.
Thursday and onward:
A weak cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday. Flow
aloft stays zonal with W/WNW flow. This will bring in a cooler
airmass than the last few days; however, still above normal overall.
Highs range in the 60s.
Model and ensemble consensus decreases towards the weekend. WPC
cluster analysis continues to highlight spread among ensembles and
their individual solutions. A good percentage of members have
southern New England on the cusp of an upper ridge pattern. A chunk
of members indicate a more unsettled/wetter pattern with rain
chances for the weekend while others keep with the drier trend.
Overall, there is still a good amount of uncertainty for next
weekend, but should come more clear as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
Through 00z Monday: High confidence.
SCT-OVC mainly VFR cloud bases (around 030-050) to gradually
scatter out by late this aftn into early tonight. VFR SKC for
Sunday.
NW winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt thru
late this afternoon, then NW winds begin to slowly decrease
tonight with light NW to N winds for Sunday.
Sunday Night: High confidence.
VFR continues. Could see winds turn light ENE near the eastern
MA coast Sunday evening, otherwise light N winds.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. SCT-BKN VFR bases with NW
winds around 10 kt; decreasing cloud cover late this
aftn/tonight along with decreasing NW speeds.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Monday/
Monday: VFR.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance RA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
335 PM Update:
Tranquil marine weather conditions are expected through Sunday
night, governed by strong high pressure. This will bring
decreasing northwest wind speeds through the the weekend, with
seas decreasing to 3 ft or less on all waters. Dry weather is
expected.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of
rain.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
345 PM Update:
The protracted stretch of dry weather will continue to lead to
elevated concerns for wildfire development until we can get a
substantial wetting rain event. Relative humidities should range
around 30 percent on Sunday, with light north winds.
With a lack of significant rain expected over the next several days,
Special Weather Statements are likely to be needed through next week
coinciding with periods where winds are on the light side.
Consideration will be given toward red flag headlines to highlight a
greater threat for wildfire development and spread when and where
there are sufficiently strong enough winds. Tuesday and Wednesday
could meet that criterion pending wind speeds, but those decisions
would be coordinated beforehand with our state fire weather
partners.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Loconto/Mensch
MARINE...Loconto/Mensch
FIRE WEATHER...Loconto/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 3:42 PM EDT----------------
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