PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 3:56 AM EST067
FXUS61 KPBZ 040856
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
356 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through
Tuesday. Rain chances return Wednesday, but any rainfall looks
to be light.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warmer today
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Eastern CONUS ridge will remain over the region today and may
amplify somewhat, further increasing the subsidence. Warm air
advection underneath the ridge will push temperatures well above
normal today. Mid and high clouds will move through, with a
decrease in overall cloud cover possible this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warmer with near-record high temperatures on Tuesday.
- Rain chances return with a mid-week cold front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Eastern CONUS ridging will slowly shift eastward on
Tuesday, but modest warm advection is expected to continue.
Temperatures Tuesday will again be well-above average
with widespread 70s expected. Latest NBM high temperature probs
are showing a 40-60% chance of 80 degrees generally south of
I-70. Record highs in Zanesville, OH (79F from 2022); New
Philadelphia, OH (79F from 1948), and Pittsburgh (80F from 1948)
will be challenged.
On Tuesday, deeper mixing with more sun will ramp up wind gusts as
probability for gusts >30 mph is 50-95%, highest across eastern
Ohio and far western Pennsylvania.
Latest ensembles continue to support a shortwave trough and
weak cold front moving through late Wednesday, but again
indicating potential displacement of the forcing working against
much needed rainfall. How much forcing and moisture return we
get will depend on the intensity of central CONUS ridging.
Should the western trough close off or remain higher amplitude,
this would promote ridging across the mid-west, tending to
quasi-zonal flow, and de-emphasizing shortwave intensity,
resulting in lower QPF. In the scenario where the western trough
is weaker, the eastern wave would be stronger and result in
higher QPF. Latest ensemble probability continues to show
50-70% for >0.25" over eastern Ohio and portions of northern
West Virginia and 30% to 50% for western Pennsylvania. This is
mostly related to the slower speed of the the western closed low
potentially splitting from flow, though alternative scenarios
with much lower QPF are still on the table with too much
uncertainty in ensemble clusters to hedge one way or another at
this point.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Forecast uncertainty increases notably late-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Much of the late-week forecast will depend on the amplitude of
a four-corners trough/closed-low.
There is still more considerable uncertainty towards the end of the
week as clusters struggle what to do with the western trough.
Most guidance falls into two camps. 1) A closed low develops and
remains mostly stationary, enforcing continued eastern ridging.
This would lean warmer and drier. 2) The upper low rejoins the
flow pattern and troughing moves in. This would be a cooler and
wetter scenario. The current forecast reflects the middle of the
road.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours as high pressure
continues to slowly drift eastward across New England. Southeasterly
winds will remain relatively light for the majority of our region
tonight. Late this morning, expect wind to increase up to 7-12 knots
with gusts up to 15-20 knots. A warm frontal passage today will
provide little change except an increase in middle and upper level
clouds.
Tonight, expect low-level wind shear to develop. Wind shear levels
will be around 2000 feet with southwesterly wind around 35-40 knots.
KBVI, KFKL, and KPIT are expected to begin experiencing low-level
wind shear around 0300 UTC, which is expected to persist for a
majority of the night into tomorrow morning. Low-level wind shear at
KDUJ and KZZV is expected to start a little later.
.Outlook...
Ridging aloft will provide mostly VFR conditions throughout
tomorrow. Restrictions are possible with a weak cold front moving
through tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, with lower ceilings
perhaps lingering into Thursday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22/MLB
LONG TERM...MLB/Milcarek
AVIATION...Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 3:56 AM EST---------------
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