ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 6:33 AM EST857
FXUS61 KILN 041133
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
633 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect warmer temperatures and a few showers today through
Tuesday in the strong southerly flow between high pressure to
the east and a cold front to the west. Showers will be
widespread Tuesday night into Wednesday when the front is
forecast to push through. The threat for showers will persist on
Thursday as the front stalls to the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Area sits under an increasing southerly flow between high
pressure along the Atlantic Coast and a wavy cold front
entering the Mississippi River Valley. Isolated to scattered
showers will continue to form in limited moisture and lift,
affecting western parts of the FA. As the pressure gradient
tightens and mixing increases, wind gusts to 30 mph are likely
by this afternoon. Warn advection on the southerly flow will
allow much above normal high temperatures in the mid to upper
70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Models indicate a low chance of showers tonight across northwest
counties, with dry weather elsewhere. Winds remaining gusty
under a tightening gradient and strengthening low level jet will
result in a well-mixed atmosphere that will keep low
temperatures up around 60, with record high mins possible.
Mainly dry weather is likely to persist early Tuesday. Later on
Tuesday afternoon, showers will move in from the west as the
front grows closer.
Main concern appears to be strong wind gusts that could reach 40
mph on Tuesday as the low level jet mixes down. Will mention
potential gusts in the HWO.
Warm temperatures will continue to be observed, with highs in
the mid 70s to around 80. These highs could reach records at
multiple locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers will spread across the area ahead of a cold front that will
become increasingly zonally oriented as it tracks in the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As upper support moves away, coverage
of showers will be waning on Wednesday as the axis of precipitation
slides southeast. There is some uncertainty regarding how quickly
the front and thus precipitation move out of the area. While slower
solutions that indicate this may not happen until later Wednesday
night cannot be discounted, it seems more likely that the front will
move south of the forecast area late Wednesday or perhaps early
Wednesday evening.
The front will linger just south of the area Wednesday night and
Thursday, and as a weak wave tracks along it, there may be a slight
uptick in showers in far southern counties. High pressure north of
the region will then exert itself further south across the entire
forecast area for the rest of the week while a sharpening mid level
ridge translates through the region resulting in dry conditions.
Upper low will lift out of the Plains into the Great Lakes over the
weekend with some spread in solutions on latitudinal placement as
well as rate of weakening during this time frame. But there is
reasonable agreement in timing which results in little difference in
terms of a broad scale look at sensible weather. Thus relatively
good confidence for that far out in the forecast that showers will
spread across the region Saturday night and Sunday.
Rather mild temperatures to start the period will cool down after
the front goes through, although still remain above normal. After
that change in airmass, there is not a lot of variation in
temperatures from day to day for the latter part of the week into
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flight conditions are forecast to remain VFR as high pressure
persists to the east while a slow moving cold front stays west.
Winds are the main concern in the tight pressure gradient
between the high and the front, with gusts up to 31 knots from
the south by this afternoon. CVG may see 30 knot gusts near the
end of their 30 hour TAF. Wind shear is expected to develop
tonight at all sites when the low level jet increases in
strength. Otherwise, sky cover should consist mainly of mid and
high clouds since low level moisture is relatively lacking.
OUTLOOK...Wind gusts around 30 knots possible at all sites on
Tuesday. MVFR CIGs and VSBYs are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday. MVFR CIGs may persist into Wednesday night and
Thursday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 6:33 AM EST---------------
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