CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 23:20 UTC785
FXUS61 KCLE 032320
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 620
PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit to the east tonight into Monday as a warm
front lifts across the local area. A cold front moves through
Tuesday night or early Wednesday. High pressure returns to the
region for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
6:20 PM EST Update...
The forecast remains valid per latest trends in observations and
model guidance. No changes appeared necessary.
Previous Discussion...
We are in return flow behind high pressure departing east across New
England, with a warm front lifting across the region late tonight
into Monday morning. Unseasonable warmth and higher dew points,
along with brisk south to southwest winds, will return behind the
warm front. We will see more cloudiness beginning this evening,
though rain chances remain minimal to none through Monday night.
Have some low POPs grazing the Toledo area early Monday with the
warm front, and again late in the day Monday as activity tries
approaching from the northwest. Don't have POPs mentioned elsewhere
through Monday night at the moment.
Lows tonight will be much milder due to the increasing clouds and
stronger winds...ranging from the 40s across far eastern OH and PA
to the mid to upper 50s across the I-75 corridor. Highs on Monday
will warm into a upper 60s to mid 70s range, a good 15 or so degrees
warmer than normal for November 4th. While a couple of spots in
Northwest PA may dip into the upper 40s Monday night, much of the
area east of I-71 will only dip into the 50s for lows with locations
farther west (including Cleveland) staying in the low to mid 60s...
that is warmer than normal daytime highs for this time of year.
Dew points will begin increasing on Monday, leading to higher
minimum RH values than today. Minimum RH values generally range from
40-50% on Monday, perhaps slightly lower in far eastern OH and
northwestern PA and perhaps slightly higher west of I-75. While
these values are notably higher than today, dead/dormant vegetation
and dropped leaves are still quite prevalent and dry across our
area. With gusty southerly breezes on Monday, there may again be
some concern for the spread of any brush or field fires that start.
Wind gusts on Monday will generally be 25-35 MPH, highest across
Northwest OH. Downslope will contribute to gusts to 35 MPH in
northern Erie Co PA overnight tonight into early Monday as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The synoptic pattern is setting up similarly, but not completely
identical to the pattern from last week in which the area was
subject to a windy warm sector with an approaching cold front.
Differences this time around with the filling upper trough axis and
the surface low rapidly pushing northeastward into eastern Canada
away from the CWA. Might end up at the beginning of frontolytic
action as the cold front enters the CWA. Will keep some high POPs in
there for now Tuesday night, but more of a lower QPF event as the
cold front tracks through the CWA. In the meantime, another set of
record high temperatures possible across the CWA with prevalent mid
to upper 70s Tuesday. Southerly winds once again going to gust 30-
40mph potentially in the increasing pressure gradient combined with
mixing low level winds down as well. No thunder in the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not a particularly cold airmass following the cold front for the end
of the week with more of a Pacific origin than a Canadian origin.
Forecast is dry Thursday and Friday with high pressure moving west
to east across the plains into the Great Lakes and ridging aloft
building in by Saturday. The modest cool down will be quick as a
result, and will be right back into the warm sector again for the
end of the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR expected through 00Z/Tues. At the surface, our region remains
along the western flank of a high pressure ridge that will remain
anchored from near New England to near the southern Appalachians. A
warm front is expected to sweep generally N'ward through northern OH
and NW PA between ~14Z and ~17Z/Mon.
Primarily SE'erly winds around 10 to 15 knots ahead of the warm
front veer to S'erly and increase to 10 to 20 knots behind the
front. Wind gusts up to 20 to 30 knots are expected at times,
especially from ~15Z to ~22Z/Mon as diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer taps into stronger flow aloft.
A few rain showers are possible with the upper-reaches and surface
portion of the front, but the chance of rain is too low for explicit
mention in the TAF's. Note: A SSW'erly to SW'erly low-level jet of
~40 to 50 knots at/near 925 mb is expected to contribute to LLWS at
KTOL and KFDY during the ~06Z to ~12Z/Mon time period.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered and periodic rain showers
Monday night through Thursday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds strengthen out of the south tonight 20-25kts for an extended
period of time into mid week. It becomes more southwesterly late
Tuesday into Tuesday night with the approach of a cold front from
the west. Through that period, wave heights will increase rapidly
away from shore with 3-5ft expected in the open waters. Cold front
tracks through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday with winds
becoming northwesterly, but decreasing to around 15kts and wave
heights 1-3ft through Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory kicks
in tonight for the strong offshore flow and continues through the
cold frontal passage early Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Near-record warm high temperatures are forecast this Tuesday,
November 5th. Here are the current records for that date:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron
Youngstown Erie 11-05 76(2022) 76(2015)
77(2022) 78(2022) 79(2022) 78(2022)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...CLE
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 23:20 UTC---------------
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