IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 2:59 AM EST240
FXUS63 KIND 030759
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected through next weekend
- Low chances for rain later today through Monday focused over
the northwest half of central Indiana
- Near record warmth Monday-Tuesday ahead of possibly more
widespread showers Tuesday/Tuesday night
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
More expansive cirrus is beginning to infiltrate the region from the
west as moisture aloft expands northeast. Temperatures have been
milder tonight versus the last couple nights with the onset of warm
advection. 07Z readings were generally in the 40s with a steady
easterly wind.
The expansive high pressure ridge centered over the eastern U S
continues to exert its influence across the Ohio Valley...
maintaining dry easterly flow into the region. The surface ridge
will drift east today and tonight as a warm front lifts northeast
into the mid Mississippi Valley. The approach of the warm front in
tandem with a deeper southwest flow aloft in response to a closed
upper level low developing over the southern Rockies will enable
progressively deeper moisture aloft to advect into the region over
the next 24 hours.The surface ridge however will remain close enough
to keep low level flow from the southeast limiting more substantial
moisture advection in the boundary layer through this evening.
Cirrus will continue to encompass the forecast area this morning
gradually thickening with mid level ceilings developing as well by
this afternoon as the warm front approaches from the southwest.
Winds will gradually veer to a more southeast direction as the day
progresses. The tightening pressure gradient between the surface
ridge to the east and a developing area of low pressure over the
High Plains will promote occasional gusts approaching 20mph this
afternoon and evening.
An axis of deep subsidence will linger through the boundary layer
across the region through mid afternoon but an area of isentropic
lift at the 300K level will move northeast across the forecast area
late this afternoon into the evening. While this should be effective
in thickening ceilings and lowering them somewhat...model soundings
continue to advertise dry air lingering lower through the column.
The strength of the isentropic lift may be enough to generate a few
light showers or sprinkles late today...focused especially across
the northwest half of the forecast area. The area of strongest
isentropic lift will shift north of central Indiana by mid evening
and should largely shut off any isolated light showers.
More substantial isentropic lift will refocus over Illinois by late
evening in closer proximity to the location of the low level jet. As
additional jet energy lifts northeast from Texas overnight...
moisture advection will strengthen with more widespread rainfall
developing across the Ozarks and lifting northeast. Much of central
Indiana will remain on the periphery of the primary moisture plume
all night...but maybe the biggest impact locally will be a gradual
eradication of the drier air lingering within the boundary layer by
Monday morning especially focused across the northwest half of the
forecast area. Showers will increase in coverage towards daybreak
Monday focused across the northern Wabash Valley.
Temps...low level thermals continue to rise within the warm
advection regime and expect highs this afternoon in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. The presence of clouds...a steady southeast wind and
increasing moisture tonight will keep temperatures much warmer than
the last few nights. Lows will likely remain near 60 over much of
the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
Monday through Tuesday Night...
A broad and pronounced surface gradient between a very large dome of
1036 mb high pressure along the eastern third of North America, and
an elongated surface trough through the Plains states...will fuel
increasing southerly flow across central Indiana during the early
workweek. Gusts Monday to 20-30 mph will be the rule, with a few
stronger gusts over the typically favored areas northwest of
Indianapolis. The approaching center of circulation, deepening
below 1000 mb while passing the Quad Cities area early Tuesday will
promote even stronger winds, with gusts mainly 25-35 mph from pre-
dawn to afternoon hours, with gusts likely approaching 40 mph at
times across the northern tier. Corresponding front to be dragged
eastward across the CWA Tuesday night, bringing much more quiescent
conditions to Indiana.
Anomalous to record high temperatures will be the other story amid
this prolonged warm advective set-up. Readings starting in the low
60s Monday morning (IND record high-minimum of 60F is in jeopardy),
will have no problem climbing into what should be widespread mid-70s
(IND record high is 78F).
Tuesday morning/afternoon's warmth should be an essential repeat
plus a couple degrees given the slightly increased southerly winds,
starting in the low 60s (IND record high-minimum of 61F is again in
jeopardy assuming trend towards a later arrival of approaching cold
frontal zone to after midnight verifies), with locations peaking
somewhere in the 70s before rain showers (of dubious coverage)
arrive from the west during the day (IND record high of 76F could be
obtainable if rain/outflow held off to later in the day).
Most recent guidance is trending to a disappointing underperformance
of rainfall amounts in the Tuesday-Tuesday night timeframe with
forcing quickly lifting northward just before the system's front
passes the region. Low confidence in these humble amounts with QPF
in constant flux the last several runs...but so far it appears
noticeable drought improvement appears unlikely.
Wednesday through Saturday...
Mainly dry conditions amid continued above normal temperatures
should be the rule for the remainder of the week as yet another
broad/deep trough over the western US continues a southwesterly,
confluent pattern into the Midwest that with deflect any Canadian
air to our north. What weak remains of Tuesday night's cold front
settle near the Ohio Valley should help focus weak overrunning
and probably a few showers at times south of I-70, but expect any
organized rain to total light/very light amounts. The normal
max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is 56/38.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Sun Nov 3 2024
Impacts:
- Southeast winds may gust over 15kts this afternoon and evening
Discussion:
Skies remain mostly clear early this morning with the Ohio Valley
remaining under the influence of high pressure to the east. The high
will continue to move away to the east today with mid and high level
clouds increasing through the day as deeper moisture lifts through
the mid Mississippi Valley. While there will be potential for
scattered diurnal cu this afternoon...dry air will linger through
the lowest 10kft courtesy of E/SE flow.
Winds will increase by midday in response to a tightening surface
pressure gradient. Expect the potential for occasional gusts to 15-
20kts by mid to late afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 2:59 AM EST---------------
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