CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 9:05 PM EDT490
FXUS61 KCLE 030105
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
905 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently over the Great Lakes will drift east into
New England on Sunday. A warm front will lift across the area early
Monday ahead of low pressure developing over the Plains. This low
will lift northeast through the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front
through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
900 pm update...
The weather remains very quiet this evening with no forecast
adjustments needed at this time.
Previous discussion...
Quiet and non-impactful weather is expected through Sunday
night. High pressure will facilitate mainly clear skies with
light winds and chilly temperatures tonight. Expect lows mostly
in the 30s tonight, with a few cold spots east dipping into the
20s. Patchy river valley fog is possible across parts of
interior eastern OH and northwestern PA. We see southeast return
flow kick in on Sunday, allowing highs to moderate into the 60s
with some thin high clouds filtering through at times. Clouds
will generally increase into Sunday night with south- southeast
winds staying up enough to keep lows much milder, generally in
the 40s and 50s (warmer west). Sunday night should be dry,
though the forecast maintains a slight chance (20%) mention for
showers in the Toledo area by pre-dawn Monday as a moisture-
starved warm front lifts across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected this period as high
pressure aloft over the southeast states shifts offshore and a
system in the plains lifts to the northeast and weakens across the
Great Lakes. On Monday, the region will be mainly dry except in
northwest Ohio where there could be a widely scattered shower or
two. On Tuesday, moisture will increase especially in the afternoon
as a cold front approaches the region. POPs will ramp up to
categorical by Tuesday evening from west to east. There is some
uncertainty in the frontal timing and corresponding higher POPs that
will accompany the front. Monday will be mild and Tuesday will warm
to near record highs in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will be exiting the area early Wednesday with a
downward trend in POPS especially in the afternoon. High pressure
will build into the region for Thursday and much of Friday before
the forecast uncertainty increases for later Friday and Saturday.
The ECMWF keeps ridging and dry conditions over the area into
Saturday while the GFS has a more progressive pattern and brings a
warm front into the region from a developing storm in the Central
Plains. POPs increase to low chance in reflection of this
uncertainty on Saturday. High temperatures will be mainly in the 60s
with lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern with VFR
conditions expected for this TAF period. Skies will continue to
be mostly clear to fair weather conditions. Some high clouds
will drift in towards the end of the time period or Sunday
afternoon. Winds will generally be from the east between 5 and
10 knots during the next 24 hours.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers late Tuesday
through early Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the region this evening will shift to the Mid-
Atlantic states on Sunday and Monday. Easterly winds this evening
will shift to the southeast and increase on Sunday and Sunday night
as the pressure gradient increases. Winds will veer to southerly on
Monday to around 20 knots. A small Craft Advisory with offshore
winds may be needed Sunday night and Monday. Winds will shift to the
southwest Tuesday and Tuesday night from 15-25 knots with the
approach of a cold front. After the cold frontal passage, winds will
shift northwest and diminish and remain fairly light for the
remainder of the weak as high pressure builds into the region.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...LaPlante
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...LaPlante
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 9:05 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
