IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:42 PM EDT910
FXUS63 KIND 022242
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
642 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunday-Tuesday..Unseasonably warm with increasing southerly winds,
windy conditions Monday and Tuesday
- Low rain chances Sunday-Monday, widespread showers possible
Tuesday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
Surface high pressure and developing upper ridging were keeping
quiet conditions across central Indiana this afternoon. A dry
atmosphere was in place, with just some passing mainly thin cirrus.
The quiet weather will continue through tonight as the surface high
slides east and the upper ridge remains in place. There will be some
high clouds moving in from the west and southwest.
With some clouds at times, and winds remaining a bit higher than
last night, radiational cooling won't be as efficient. Still though,
blended guidance may be a bit warm. Will trim them a bit, especially
in favored cold areas. Lows will be generally in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.
On Sunday, the upper ridge will move to the east some. 850mb winds
will increase from the south, providing warm advection. Upper energy
riding the west side of the ridge will generate some weak lift
across the western forecast area in the afternoon. However, this
forcing won't have a lot of moisture to work with, as the south to
southeasterly winds will take a while to bring in decent low level
moisture.
Confidence is low in any rain for the forecast area Sunday
afternoon, but with the weak lift/moisture around and PoPs already
in the forecast, will keep some slight chance PoPs in the far west
during the afternoon. Rain probably wouldn't amount to more than
sprinkles though.
Although the amount of sunshine will diminish as the day progresses,
warm advection will still allow for highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Normal highs are in the 50s to around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
Sunday Night through Tuesday Night...
An active pattern is expected during the first half of the extended
period due to an amplified synoptic pattern across the CONUS. Warm
air advection and PVA ahead of a deep broad trough will lead to
increasing rain chances early next week. Extensive cloud cover
should also persist through Tuesday limiting diurnal temperature
swings. Rain may hold off for much of Sunday night before showers
begin to increase in coverage Monday morning. There is still some
uncertainty on rain chances for Monday. This is because most
guidance shows residual dry air in the low-mid levels which could
limit coverage and rainfall amounts. In addition, the stronger
forcing for ascent could remain just west of central Indiana. POPs
were capped at 40% due to the uncertainty.
More widespread precipitation is likely on Tuesday as the
aforementioned trough and an associated cold front move through.
However, there are some caveats to the forecast which are leading to
lower confidence in rain chances. Models are in good agreement that
the mid-upper level jet on the backside of the trough will quickly
weaken. This will cause the deep trough to also quickly weaken upon
approach leading to much weaker overall forcing for ascent.
Depending on how quickly mid-upper level forcing wanes, a good
portion of central Indiana could end up with light rainfall amounts
under a quarter of an inch.
A tightening pressure gradient and strong low-level jet will result
in windy conditions, especially on Tuesday with the potential
southerly gusts up to 40 mph. Near record warmth is likely to return
due to strong southerly flow. Forecasted overnight temperatures in
the low 60s Sunday night and Monday night are a few degrees warmer
than seasonal highs this time of year.
Wednesday through Saturday...
Dry conditions are expected by midweek as the system earlier in the
week shifts east and surface high pressure builds in. Drier air
filtering in should help to clear out any lingering clouds.
Wednesday is shaping up to be a great day with highs well in the 60s
and light winds due to the pressure gradient relaxing. Surface high
pressure centered near the region may keep weather conditions mostly
quiet through Friday. Subtle moisture advection ahead of another
system may support isolated showers at times Thursday or Friday, but
weak forcing limits confidence. A low pressure system and parent
trough pushing across the Midwest should bring a better chance for
precipitation over the weekend. Exact details remain uncertain due
to diverging model solutions.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 642 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
Impacts:
- Occasional wind gusts to 16-18KT Sunday afternoon
Discussion:
High pressure will keep cloud cover confined to some high clouds
overnight, with easterly winds at 4-7KT.
During the day on Sunday, increasing moisture aloft and a tightening
pressure gradient will allow for more midlevel cloud and some
scattered VFR cumulus. Winds will veer a bit to 120-140 degrees and
strengthen to 10-12KT with occasional gusts of 16-18KT.
No obstructions to visibility are expected with winds remaining up a
bit and high clouds overnight expected to prevent any minor ground
fog.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:42 PM EDT---------------
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