PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 11:30 AM CST862
FXUS63 KPAH 031730
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will climb into the 75-80 range over much of the
region today and tomorrow and Monday, well above the normal
high temperatures of low to mid 60s.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorm is forecast from
southeast Missouri into northern/western portions of southern
Illinois today through Monday night with the best chances
tonight. Some models are shifting towards torrential rainfall
in the Ozark Foothills tonight into Monday morning, though
confidence is low.
- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorm are expected Tuesday
into Tuesday night, as a cold front passes, with most
locations receiving around an inch of rain.
- For Wednesday through next Saturday, unsettled conditions are
expected with daily chances of rain and continued mild
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
High pressure continues to slowly drift eastward, allowing for
surface winds to shift towards the SSE today. Ridging builds
into the northeast while a trough digs into the Desert
Southwest. A series of disturbances today and tomorrow follow
the jet to the northeast from around Oklahoma towards Chicago.
Models generally agree on there being two main waves of
moisture, the first this evening into tomorrow, but disagree on
positioning. In the HREF, there has been a shift towards the
southeast in the 00Z runs with the heavy rainfall plume this
evening through Monday morning. A couple ensemble members (the
ARW and HRRR) track an area of 3-6+ inches of rain near the CWA
border near the Ozarks. The 06Z HRRR only slightly pulled back
on the eastward extent of heavy rain. Other hi-res and global
models are drier, leaving a situation with significant rainfall
is a distinctly possible but outlier scenario. In the NAEFS
ensemble, PWs and IVT exceed the 99th percentile from SW to
East-Central Missouri, just outside the Quad State; these sorts
of percentiles should land wherever the heavy rain band sets up.
At this time, the choice was made to hold off on a Flood Watch
for the western four for now, favoring waiting for the 12Z runs
to see if this shift in hi-res models snaps back or gains
additional model support to increase confidence. We have had a
very dry October, with Halloween keeping soils from being too
dry, so are in a good spot relative to flood risk; 6 hour flash
flood guidance is around 3.5 inches. It will require the higher
end amounts to get flooding going, but the hilly terrain of the
Ozark Foothills is more susceptible than flatter terrain by the
bootheel. A slight risk ERO covers the Ozark Foothills tonight
and tomorrow. The convective environment decreases on approach
to the Quad State, keeping the D2 marginal risk limited to the
westernmost counties of the CWA, as instability remains limited.
The second round of moisture has greater model agreement to it
when it comes to amounts. The primary system rounds the base of
the trough and lifts northeastward towards the Great Lakes,
dragging a cold front across the Quad State. Widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected, again with a limited
convective environment. Lightning and heavy rain will be the
main impacts, with around an inch of rain Tuesday through
Tuesday night across the region. A broad marginal risk ERO is in
place for D3 but flooding issues Tuesday are likely to be minor
and brief, except in any areas that get several inches of rain
with round one.
The front stalls out in Tennessee Wednesday-Thursday keeping
slight chance to chance PoPs in portions of the Quad State with
the best chance in the Southern Pennyrile. Temperatures will be
much cooler compared to Sunday-Monday, but still remain a
little above normal. Models form a cutoff low in the Eastern
Rockies emerging into the Plains, but disagree fairly widely on
positioning. This will be one to keep an eye on for Friday into
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
There are a few things of note this period, first is the LLWS
overnight at PAH, EVV, and OWB and is borderline at MVN and
CGI. Second is the showers that are affecting MVN currently are
continuing to move north give way to drier conditions until
later this evening/tonight. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm
or two are then possible at CGI and MVN tonight into tomorrow.
Winds remain gusty out of the south today with gusts around
20kts. There may be a brief lull just after sunset and then
overnight winds pick back up again and are gusty again tomorrow.
Cigs are VFR for now, but will gradually lower later this
evening and overnight to MVFR.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 11:30 AM CST---------------
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