PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 7:16 AM EDT992
FXUS61 KPBZ 011116
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
716 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Near-average temperatures return with dry conditions today and
Saturday. Temperatures rebound early next week with
precipitation chances Sunday. Additional precipitation chances
and a cooling trend is possible mid-to-late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cooler and drier today.
- Uncertainty in southward extent in cloud coverage.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
7AM Update: No major changes have been made to this forecast
period. The cold front is currently tracking east of PIT.
Remnant low-level moisture and upsloping has prompted some
remnant showers/drizzle along the ridges of the Laurel Highlands
and within northern WV.
Previous Discussion: The main uncertainty in the today's
forecast will be the southward extent of stratocumulus in post-
frontal cold advection over lake Erie. Ensembles show coverage
at least as far south as I-80, but the deck may dip as far south
as Pittsburgh. This will have an effect in daytime mixing and
temperatures; ares under cloud cover will tend on the cooler
side. Isolated light showers could not be ruled out north of
I-80 with lake moisture and shallow surface instability.
A pressure gradient will relax throughout the day, allowing
winds to decrease into the evening hours. Nonetheless, a few
gusts in the 20mph to 25 mph range are possible in the late
morning and early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued drier and seasonable conditions.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
In wake of the departing low, high pressure will build in and
persist with high confidence tonight through at least Saturday
night. This period will bring continued near normal temperatures
with relatively light winds.
Uncertainty in stratocumulus coverage persists for the I-80
corridor tonight. Clouds may depart as early as sunset and as
late as Saturday morning, though, with no definitive mixing
mechanism, delayed clearing leans more likely. Elsewhere, where
skies are clear, calm winds and effective cooling will drop
temperatures to around or slightly below average.
Saturday and Saturday night will remain mostly clear under high
pressure, temperature swings governed by radiative processes.
Seasonable conditions remain.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A warm front returns rain chances late Sunday into Monday.
- Warmer temperatures return early next week.
- Cold front crosses with rain chances Wednesday.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles are in good agreement that the eastern CONUS ridge axis
will slide slowly eastward Sunday and Monday, reaching the Atlantic
coast on the latter day. As this occurs, southwest flow in the Ohio
Valley will push a moisture increase and a warm front our way. Thus,
rain chances return to the forecast, but QPF remains fairly light
overall as much better forcing sets up west of our area, in the
Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes. Forcing may be enough on
the warm front for light QPF in the I-80 corridor. Temperatures
remain not too far above normal Sunday, but a jump in 850mb
temperatures with the warm front could add around 10 degrees to
the highs on Monday.
The Atlantic ridge will strengthen as it continues to trudge
eastward Monday night into Tuesday. A lull in rain chances
appears possible Monday night in the warm sector, but a
shortwave trough ejecting from the southwest CONUS has a decent
chance of reaching the Great Lakes by Tuesday night, resulting
in a return of rain chances into at least Wednesday. There is
some disagreement among the ensemble members regarding shortwave
strength and timing, but decent agreement overall lends a bit
of confidence to the overall scenario. High temperatures should
peak on Tuesday, well into the 70s or even low 80s for many,
before moderation by Wednesday behind a possible cold frontal
passage. Isolated lingering showers and seasonable temperatures
may then return for Thursday.
There is still very little disagreement in the pattern overall
in the east towards the end of next week. Uncertainties largely
arise next Friday and beyond with the presence or lack of a
digging trough in the four corners region that would act to
enhance ridging or quasi-zonal flow.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Subsidence within the dry slot is quickly clearing clouds from
west to east early this morning. The cold front is currently
tracking over the Laurel Highlands; LBE may see some light
drizzle due to upsloping over the next 2 hours. Otherwise, lake
enhanced moisture will return under NW flow over the next 6
hours and VFR conditions over FKL/DUJ will likely drop to MVFR.
The extent in the low-level cloud deck is uncertainty and may
impact PIT/BVI/LBE at times between 18Z and 23Z.
Weak fetch off the Great Lakes will help reduce lake enhanced
cloud coverage between 00Z and 06Z Saturday. Cigs near FKL/DUJ
may bounce between high MVFR to low VFR briefly.
.Outlook...
Building high pressure should promote VFR conditions with light
wind late Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...CL/Milcarek
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 7:16 AM EDT---------------
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