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575 FXUS64 KLIX 210813AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA313 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024Little change in the ongoing pattern of deep layer ridgingcurrently in place across the Gulf South is expected throughThursday night. The result of this deep layer ridging will becontinued subsidence and warming through the mid and upper levelsof the atmosphere, and that warming will keep a strong mid- levelcapping inversion place through the period. This will result in adry forecast through the period. At most, some scattered lowtopped cumulus development beneath the inversion will occur eachafternoon as the low levels remain warm, humid, and unstable.Temperatures will remain warmer than average due to the highlysubsident airmass in place, and afternoon highs will easily climbinto the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will also beabove normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remainelevated in the mid to upper 60s. Have opted to go with a blend ofNBM 50th and 75th percentile values for the overnight lows. As low dip toward the diurnal minimum each morning, some patchy fog may develop over inland areas given the light boundary layer windsin place beneath the ridge. &&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024Going into Friday continuing to be noticeably hotter as 591dm ridging remains parked over Mexico into the Gulf. This will keep highs pretty hot generally into the mid 90's and with the return of low to mid 70 Td's, will introduce building heat indicies into the upper 90's to low 100's especially going into Memorial Day Weekend. Not seeing any excessive or dangerous heat indicies, but will be enough to be impactful for those outdoors for an extended period, especially given this being our first return of heat reaching these temperatures this season and many may not be too used to it just yet. Messaging going into the holiday weekend will be focused on taking precautions against the heat. Additionally, kept a warmer overnight low bias rolling with many areas not cooling much lower than the mid to upper 70's. As for rain chances, still not seeing strong indications but as mentioned in yesterday's long-range discussion, will still need to keep an eye on the quasi-zonal flow aloft and subtle hints at weak mid-level impulses ridging from TX to the northern Gulf coast. No indications of any MCS or cluster in recent runs, but will need to keep an eye on it in case anything tries to sneak into atleast nearby our area. For now, rolling with NBM deterministic PoPs which keeps things dry for the most part this weekend. Some indications of a weak front arriving early next week, but that remains to be seen as far as rain coverage/chances and potential to counteract the heat some. Will keep an eye on that. KLG&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024Primarily a VFR forecast with only a very limited threat of fog around sunrise Tuesday. Will carry a TEMPO mention at KHUM andKMCB, but threat is non-zero elsewhere, just not high enough confidence to carry in the forecast. Any fog that does develop should rapidly dissipate around 14z. Other than some flat cumulus,don't expect much in the way of clouds tomorrow, either.&&.MARINE...Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024The waters will continue to see a persistent southeasterly flow ofaround 10 knots through the weekend as high pressure dominates thenorthern Gulf. Seas will also be fairly consistent in the 1 to 3feet range through the period, and there will be no risk ofthunderstorm activity producing locally higher waves and seas. Asa result, continued good boating conditions are anticipatedthrough the upcoming holiday weekend. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 91 71 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 88 71 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 73 87 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 86 73 85 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 86 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
