BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 10:01 AM EDT052
FXUS61 KBOX 281401
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1001 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Looking at a period of below normal temperatures into tonight. A
warm front on Tuesday will bring increasing clouds and chances
at light rainfall. Well above normal temperatures and southwest
breezes are expected Wednesday and Thursday, and high
temperatures in some locations could reach near 80 degrees on
Thursday. A cold front ushers in a cooldown with another chance
for showers Friday. Drier weather and more seasonable
temperatures returning for next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM Update:
Cool start to the day with temperatures in the upper 30s across
portions of MA with others rising into the 40s. Extra cloud
cover and a cooler start has prevented relative humidity values
drop dropping as quickly as they did yesterday morning. Good
from the fire weather perspective as we don't want extended
period of lower humidity. Humidity is still expected to drop
later this morning resulting in another dry day. Light winds,
but dry conditions will keep the fire weather concerns elevated
once again today. Made some minor edits to cloud cover with more
around this morning than originally anticipated. Otherwise
another cool dry day expected today.
Previous Discussion:
After a cold front moves offshore early this
morning, high pressure follows in its wake from the north.
Morning clouds give way to abundant sunshine this afternoon.
However, a reinforcing shot of cold air should mean similar or
slightly lower temperatures for most. Light north winds
gradually shift northeast to east late today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
The core of a nearby high pressure moves just east of New
England tonight into Tuesday. Light winds should mean decent
radiational cooling conditions, leading to the coldest night
we have seen in a while. South winds increase as the high
pressure moves offshore, leading to a little warmup Tuesday with
near normal high temperatures anticipated. Dry weather continues
into Tuesday morning. An approaching warm front late in the day
brings some clouds and a slight risk for some showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key points...
* Warm front Tuesday brings some chances at some light rain
showers, particularly in the north
* Warmer than normal on Halloween, some spots close to 80
degrees Thursday
* Light rain possible again Friday with cold front passage
Discussion...
Not much has changed from the previous forecast. As high
pressure moves offshore, a warm front is expected to pass
through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Its primary impact
will be some increased cloud cover, but chances for some light
rain cannot be ruled out. GFS appears to be more optimistic and
favors rain making its way into CT and RI, but the best chances
continue to be further north. Even with the possibility of rain,
anything we do get is not expected to help much with the
extended period of dry weather we've been seeing.
A strong ridge will settle over southern New England by
Wednesday and southwest winds will prevail. Guidance is still
strongly favoring higher than normal temperatures midweek,
particularly on Halloween, with some spots possibly reaching
80F. Some ensembles have close to an 80 percent chance in
eastern MA and the CT Valley for temperatures over 75F. With how
dry the soils are across southern New England, we could see
these temperatures verify and even exceed expectations.
Friday could be yet another chance at some rain, however, it
would also be quite light and may not help much with the ongoing
dryness. Another cold front passes through, bringing another
cooldown expected to last through the weekend. Highest chances
continue to be in western MA early Friday morning. Cloud cover
increases following the front's passage, and lows Friday night
are expected to sink back into the 30s and 40s across southern
New England. By Saturday morning, 925 mb temps may sit around
0C, favoring a cold morning to start a cool and seasonable
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Monday: High confidence.
Some lower clouds have moved into the area and around some of
the terminals this morning. These clouds are not expected to
bring MVFR conditions, but they will be a nuisance for the time
being. Expected to stick around for a few hours. Otherwise,
winds expected to remain N for most of the day before shifting
to the NE this afternoon. VFR.
Monday Night through Tuesday: High confidence.
VFR for most locations through Monday Night for most. A cold
frontal passage switches winds N/NNW 06-10z. Brief period of
MVFR possible towards northern MA and the Berkshires early this
morning. Winds become light NE to E this afternoon.
An approaching warm front Tuesday expected to lead to areas of
MVFR across the western half of southern New England, with
local IFR across the higher terrain. VFR persists across
eastern MA.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
A cold front passage from the north will shift winds early this
morning. High pressure then remains over the waters into
Tuesday, and should provide rather tranquil boating conditions
with good visibility.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler conditions persist, with minimum relative humidity
values 20-40 percent for most. The lower end of those values
are more likely in MA, especially northeast MA. Winds stay light
NNE to NE. With continued dry conditions, elevated fire weather
concerns remain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk/Mensch
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
FIRE WEATHER...Belk/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 10:01 AM EDT----------------
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