LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 3:17 AM EDT574
FXUS63 KLMK 310717
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread rain showers with scattered thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and evening. Gusty to damaging
thunderstorm winds of 35-40 mph are possible.
* Mainly dry weekend with the next chance of substantial rain
coming by late Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Surface low pressure is currently centered over central Iowa with a
cold front extending southwest through Missouri and into central
Texas. Today and tonight the low pressure will move northeast in to
the Great Lakes region and the cold front will move east through the
Ohio Valley. Along and ahead of this front, showers and storms will
move through the region.
Starting in the upper levels, troughing associated with this system
will weaken and remain mostly north of the region. The right
entrance region of the upper jet will move over the Ohio Valley in
the late afternoon/evening. At the lower levels, a 45-50 kt LLJ is
currently moving into the region. The LLJ has helped us remain mixed
overnight, resulting in breezy winds and stalled temperatures. The
LLJ will stick around through the day bringing gusty winds up to
30mph outside of convection and 35-40mph gusty-damaging winds
associated with convection. At the surface, flow ahead of the front
will be from the southwest, resulting in warmer than normal
temperatures in the upper 70s and ample moisture. PWATs look to be
in the 1.5-1.7 inch range, which is near max climatology for this
time of year. Will see a widespread 0.5 inches of rainfall and
totals up to 1.25 inches in areas that see storms.
Squall line currently over eastern Missouri will continue to push
east into the region and slowly weaken as it approaches by mid-
morning. Although this line will have weakened some, ample deep
layer shear will suggest maintenance of a line of showers with
embedded storms. In the afternoon, day time heating will allow for
destabilization and redevelopment along the front. Main concerns
with stronger storms is damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
The cold front will progress through the region in the overnight
hours, just beginning to exit to the southeast by sunrise Friday
morning. As the front pushes through, winds will veer to the
northwest and PoPs/clouds will steadily decrease. Low temperatures
Friday morning are expected to fall into the low-mid 40s over
southern Indiana and upper 40s and low 50s across most of central
Kentucky.
Overall, will be a breezy and rainy evening for trick-or-treaters in
most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Friday through Sunday Night...
Surface frontal boundary is expected to be southeast of the forecast
area by Friday morning. During the day, high pressure will build
into the region with skies clearing out leading to a mostly sunny
day. Highs will range from the lower 60s over southern IN and the
northern half of KY to the mid-upper 60s over southern KY. Lows
Friday night will drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s over
southern IN/northern KY, across southern KY, lows will be the mid-
upper 40s.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather for Saturday
with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will moderate a bit with
highs in the upper 60s to around 70 across southern IN and the
northern half of KY. Across southern KY, highs look to warm into
the lower-mid 70s. With the high pressure center moving off to the
east by Saturday night, we'll get into a return flow pattern as a
warm front quickly lifts northward through the region. Scattered
showers will be possible late Saturday night across the northwest
half of the region. Lows will primarily be in the low-mid 50s, with
perhaps some mid-upper 40s over the far northeastern Bluegrass area.
For Sunday, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with
scattered showers pushing across the region. Highs will be above
normal here with readings in the mid-upper 70s, though a few spots
along the KY/TN border could touch 80. Lows Sunday night will range
from the upper 50s across the east, to the lower 60s in the west.
Monday through Wednesday...
Moving into next week, the upper level flow pattern will become
quite amplified with a deep upper trough axis over the western CONUS
and a corresponding upper ridge over the eastern US. Our area will
be on the western edge of the upper ridge axis on Monday with mainly
dry conditions, though some shower activity will be possible across
our far western areas. The upper trough axis will shift eastward on
Tuesday bringing another frontal boundary into the region with a
band of showers and possibly some scattered storms. The front will
slowly clear the area by Wednesday.
Temperatures early next week will be above normal once again until
the frontal boundary pushes through. Highs on Monday will likely
top out in the upper 70s with a few spots hitting 80. Similar
readings are expected on Tuesday ahead of the front. A return back
to seasonal temperatures occurs by Wednesday as highs will be in the
mid-upper 60s, with a few spots across southern KY warming to around
70.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
A LLJ develops ahead of an approaching cold front, which will
support several hours of LLWS at all terminals early this morning.
Sfc winds will be increasing through the morning as the front
approaches, and could see southerly winds gust up to 25kts. By the
midday hours, and into the afternoon and evening, scattered gusty
showers are expected at all terminals. Some embedded thunder is
possible, but confidence in coverage and exact is limited enough to
keep out of TAFs for now. Cigs will gradually lower through the day,
and could end up seeing some MVFR cigs by late afternoon or evening
at some of the terminals.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 3:17 AM EDT---------------
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