JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:55 PM EDT288
FXUS63 KJKL 301755
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm weather will persist into Thursday afternoon. with dry
conditions holding until near evening on Halloween.
- A wetting rainfall is expected as a cold front moves through the
area Thursday night and early Friday morning.
- Cooler temperatures will arrive for Friday into Saturday, with
warmer readings returning to start next week threatening
records.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2024
Not many changes made to the forecast as the forecast has remained
largely on track. Made a few touch-ups based on the latest surface
obs and removal of fog. Also, updated morning text and radio
products to reflect the changes. Grids have been saved and sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2024
07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure located to the east of
Kentucky while deep low pressure is still well off to the
northwest. This is keeping a distinct pressure gradient in place
through the state promoting southerly winds - but they are
currently rather light through the rest of overnight. The clouds
have mainly been high and of various opacity, so far, through the
night. This is preventing us from seeing ideal radiational
cooling conditions, but even so we note temperatures varying from
the lower and middle 60s on the ridges to the upper 40s in the
deeper sheltered valleys. The clouds also seem to be hindering the
development of fog outside of the immediate vicinity of the
main stem rivers and bodies of water.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a large area of 5h ridging over the southeast
portion of the nation initially while upstream a large trough is
working east through the Rockies. As this trough approaches
the region late tonight the ridge shrinks off to the east while
southwest mid-level flow continues over the area into Thursday.
For the most part, the flow will be devoid of much energy for
eastern Kentucky but 5h height falls work in from the northwest by
Thursday evening as the core of the trough moves into the upper
Midwest and northern Great Lakes. On account of the small spread
among the models have favored the NBM as the starting point for
the forecast grids with mainly temperature adjustments in the near
term to account for some terrain differences tonight and to a
lesser extent tonight. The latest CAMs guidance was also used to
enhance the PoPs for the latter part of Thursday.
Sensible weather features another couple of very warm days with
breezy south to southwest winds building into each afternoon. For
tonight, we will see partly cloudy skies but likely enough clear,
or thin, patches to allow for some radiational cooling and
terrain distinctions for much of the area into Thursday morning -
along with just the barest spots of river valley fog. The sfc
cold front approaches the area on Thursday with an area of broken
coverage showers arriving in the afternoon from northwest to
southeast giving most of us our best chance for tangible rainfall
that we have seen in a month or so. The west will get the highest,
and much needed, QPF - up to a half an inch from this with
rainfall amounts tapering off toward the east into Thursday night.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
adjusting the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction early
this morning and tonight. Temperatures were also brought up a
notch for highs today along with slightly drier dewpoints this
afternoon. As for PoPs: included the latest CAMs guidance for
timing and areal coverage adjustments Thursday afternoon into the
evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2024
The long term period begins Thursday evening with a cold front
pushing east across the Ohio River Valley, driven by an upper low
and trough lifting east-northeast across the northern Great Lakes
region into southeast Canada. However, the upper-level energy will
outrun the cold front across the area Friday, with the cold front
slowing down and weakening with time Thursday night into Friday.
Nevertheless, there will be sufficient energy and moisture for all
of eastern Kentucky to see much-needed measurable rain with this
event, with highest amounts along and north of Interstates 64 and
75. Any thunder chances have been removed with this forecast package
given extremely marginal instability and CAPE, primarily confined to
the extreme western and southwestern parts of the forecast area.
Heading into the weekend, a large-scale deep amplitude trough
develops over the Western US while an upper high consolidates and
strengthens over Florida, with its ridge axis building north over
the Upper Ohio Valley through early next week. A warm front crosses
the area Saturday and brings minimal shower chances, with eastern
Kentucky prevailing within the outer fringes of the warm sector of a
deep cyclone over the Southwest US moving into the Central US by the
middle of next week. This will mean increasingly warm conditions
resulting in near-record high temperatures in the upper 70s to near
80 degrees the early to middle part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites will be VFR
and stay VFR through the period. However, a stratus deck is
bringing near-MVFR conditions to KSME, KLOZ and may sneak into
KSYM which will persist through the afternoon. Also,increased
south-southwest winds are occurring with sustained winds around 10
knots and gusts to 20 knots. Toward sunset, those winds will
diminish to light and variable. As a upper-level low approaches
the region, LLWS will ramp up after 06Z for all TAF sites and will
remain persistent through 12Z before surface winds increase which
will negate LLWS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...AR
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:55 PM EDT---------------
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