ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 3:21 AM EDT159
FXUS61 KILN 300721
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
321 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong southwesterly flow continues to move through the region, allowing
for unseasonably warm temperatures to continue. Wednesday highs should rise
to nearly twenty degrees above normal with strong southerly winds. The next
chance for precipitation arrives on Thursday as a cold front moves through
the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The strong pressure gradient between the high pressure off of
the Atlantic Coast and the low pressure in the Great Plains
remains in place through the midwest. Strong southwesterly flow
and WAA continue to pump warm, moist air up into the Ohio Valley
as the ILN CWA will be in the open warm sector of the low
pressure. Wind gusts will increase after sunrise, gusting to ~30
MPH again throughout the daytime on Wednesday out of the
south/southwest. Temperatures will once again rise to nearly 20
degrees above climatological normals. Temperature records are
listed in the Climate section of the AFD below.
The area remains dry on Wednesday with patchy mid-level clouds
moving through the region. Similar to Tuesday, there is a very
small fire weather threat given the elevated winds and
antecedent dry conditions. However, even with strong winds and
mixing on Tuesday, RHs did not drop much below 50% and Wednesday
should feature even more moisture, so not too much of a concern
there.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
We're expecting a brief decrease in wind speeds Wednesday around
sunset as we start to decouple. However, as the low pressure
system to our west begins to really encroach into the region,
winds will pick back up again during the overnight hours,
particularly north of I-71. Clouds also thicken and lower ahead
of this system, keeping overnight low temperatures in the
mid/low 60s.
Halloween morning arrives cloudy, breezy, and warm. The area
remains in the warm sector and temperatures rise into the 70s
with Tds rising into the 60s ahead of a cold front that will
push through the area. Additionally, Thursday will likely be the
breeziest day of the week, with sustained winds between 20-25
MPH and gusts up to 40 MPH, particularly northwest of I-71. Will
add mention of this into the HWO.
Showers and storms look to get forced out ahead of the cold
front Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. Right now,
instability (both surface based and elevated) looks pretty
minimal (though not non-existent!). Some rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out- neither can an isolated stronger wind gust.
Unfortunately, timing does look to have most of the precip push
through right during Trick-or-Treat times for much of the
region... will be a good night to keep an eye on the radar if
you're taking the kiddies out. Remember, lightning can strike
10-20 miles away from parent storms!
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers will taper off from the northwest Thursday night as the cold
front moves off to our southeast. Temperatures will drop off quickly
in the developing CAA behind the front with lows Thursday night
ranging from the upper 30s northwest to the upper 40s southeast.
Surface high pressure will shift east across the Great Lakes on
Friday. This will lead to dry but cool conditions with highs on
Friday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As the high moves off to the
east, we will start to get into some return flow on Saturday with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
Mid and upper level ridging over the southeastern US early next week
will lead to developing southwesterly flow across the Ohio Valley
Sunday into Monday. A warm front will lift north across the area
through the day on Sunday, leading to continued warming and a chance
for showers. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
There is some uncertainty Monday into Tuesday with the strength of
the ridging to our southeast and just how fast additional short wave
energy will be able to work its way into our area from the west.
Will therefore limit pcpn to mainly chance pops with the best
chances across our northwestern areas. Temperatures will be
unseasonably warm with highs Monday and Tuesday well into the
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Once again, the main item of interest is going to be the gusty
winds ahead of the Halloween weather system. At the start of the
period, widespread wind gusts have decreased and, while we
still may have the isolated gust to 20 knots or so, expect the
overnight to be much less windy compared to the daylight hours.
However, after sunrise we begin to mix again and gusts will
increase back to 20-30 knots out of the southwest.
High level cloud blowoff is moving through the region as we are
now in the open warm sector of the coming low pressure system.
These high clouds linger through the day on Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds are likely at times through Thursday.
Showers are likely on Thursday with some thunder possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Wednesday high temperature records are as follows:
CVG: 83F, 1927
DAY: 81, 1901,1927
CMH: 80F, 1927
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 3:21 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
