ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:22 AM EDT002
FXUS61 KILN 300522
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
122 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow returns to the region and we will experience a
notable warm up as temperatures on Wednesday rise to nearly 20
degrees above normal. In addition, some breezy conditions are
expected through mid week. The next chance for precipitation
arrives on Thursday as a cold front moves through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Dry conditions are expected overnight. High clouds will work
across the region. Southerly flow will keep temperatures warm
across the area overnight with lows only dropping down into the
50s to around 60 degrees. Wind gusts will be more isolated
during the overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The southwesterly flow and WAA continues and we'll again
experience breezy conditions with gusts to 30 MPH northwest of
I-71. Temperatures will again rise to around 80 degrees, nearing
record highs for the date and continuing the trend of 20 degrees
above normal for another day.
Nighttime will be a similar setup as tonight with a continued
ssw flow keeping some wind over the region at overnight. Low
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than is expected
tonight, pushing lows on this day closer to 25 degrees above
normal as they range from near 65 in the northwest to near 60 in
the southeast.
Models are trying to produce some light precip a little further ahead
of the front in the warm sector overnight. While this could be a
stretch, it's still a reasonable enough scenario to have some
low chance in the west/northwest CWA towards daybreak Thursday.
If nothing else, there could be a few passing sprinkles.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main s/wv energy will be pivoting from the central Plains into
the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night (Halloween). An
associated cold front will push east through our region,
bringing a high chance for showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder. Best chances will ramp up in the afternoon and continue
into the first part of the evening. A tight pressure gradient
along with some stronger winds aloft will make for breezy to
windy conditions. In fact, some gusts around 40 mph will be
possible on Thursday across the Whitewater/Miami Valleys, west
central Ohio, and parts of western sections of central Ohio. The
only good thing will be the temperatures as they will remain
above normal until frontal passage, where they will then cool
off to more normal readings. Pcpn will taper off from west to
east overnight as subsidence and drier air quickly move in from
the west. This system will be fairly fast, so rainfall amounts
will mostly be in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range with some local
higher amounts possible. Highs will range from the lower 70s
west to the upper 70s east. Lows will range from the upper
30s/lower 40s west to the mid/upper 40s east.
Dry weather and cooler temperatures will return for Friday and
Friday night as surface high pressure builds east into the Great
Lakes. Highs will range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s
south. Lows will range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s.
Dry weather will continue into Saturday/Saturday night as the high
moves off to the east into the eastern Great Lakes, southeast
Canada and the New England region. Temperatures will moderate with
highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to the upper 40s.
Another strong anomalous mid level ridge will build across the
southeast U.S. for early next week. Our region will be on the
northern periphery of this ridge where some deeper moisture will
reside. It looks like embedded disturbances will affect mainly our
northwest forecast area, but low chance amounts will still be
possible elsewhere. Temperatures will warm to above normal readings
again with highs eventually climbing into the 70s and lows warming
into the 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Once again, the main item of interest is going to be the gusty
winds ahead of the Halloween weather system. At the start of the
period, widespread wind gusts have decreased and, while we
still may have the isolated gust to 20 knots or so, expect the
overnight to be much less windy compared to the daylight hours.
However, after sunrise we begin to mix again and gusts will
increase back to 20-30 knots out of the southwest.
High level cloud blowoff is moving through the region as we are
now in the open warm sector of the coming low pressure system.
These high clouds linger through the day on Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds are likely at times through Thursday.
Showers are likely on Thursday with some thunder possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With drought still in recent memory and much of the area still
in drought or at least abnormally dry, increased wind speeds are
expected to increased fire danger as fuels are drying and
becoming receptive to fire. This is particularly true in grassy
fuels and 10h fuels in thinly sheltered areas. The HDWI (Hot Dry
Windy Index) exceeds the 75th percentile for much of the CWA.
This threat is mentioned in the HWO for Wednesday with emphasis
on counties northwest of I-71 where winds will be strongest.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:22 AM EDT---------------
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