PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 4:10 AM EDT268
FXUS61 KPBZ 290810
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
410 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible north of Pittsburgh this morning
with a crossing warm front. Otherwise, high pressure will
maintain dry and warmer weather through early Thursday. Showers
return late Thursday and Thursday night with a crossing cold
front. Cooler and dry weather is then expected through Saturday
under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered showers this morning, mainly N of PIT
- Dry and warmer the remainder of the day
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The latest upper air and meso analysis shows a flat ridge in
place across the Upper Ohio Valley region. A weak shortwave and
its associated surface warm front was across Michigan and
Indiana. This wave and front will track across the region this
morning, with increasing clouds. A low level jet is also progged
to slide across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
region this morning. This should provide enough ascent for
scattered showers north of PIT this morning.
The shortwave and warm front should exit the region this
afternoon. Any showers will end, with a decrease in cloud cover
as well. High temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees
above average, with PHD possibly breaking a record high (see
climate section below.)
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warmer through early Thursday
- Showers return late Thursday and Thursday night with a cold
front
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A ridge will continue to build across much of the eastern CONUS
through Wednesday. 500 mb heights are progged to peak from 588
to 590 dam across the Upper Ohio Valley region, as 850 mb
temperatures reach 12-13 deg C. A strengthening pressure
gradient between a high to our east, and a low across the
Plains, should result in increasing SW wind through the day.
These factors should result in high temperatures around 20
degrees above average.
The ridge will begin to shift east of the region Wednesday
night, as a shortwave trough and associated surface cold front
advance eastward out of the Plains region. Increasing SW wind
ahead of this system, and mixing, will result in high
temperature again around 20 degrees above average. Clouds are
expected to increase later in the day from W-E as the shortwave
and surface front approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Showers are expected to overspread the region in the vicinity
of, and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
Sufficient layer moisture and jet supported ascent support
categorical POPs, through QPF amounts are in the one tenth to
one third of an inch range at this time. The showers should
continue into the overnight hours before tapering off from W-E
after FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cooler and dry weather returning Friday
- Dry and warmer Saturday and Sunday
- Rain chances return Sunday night and Monday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate the lingering upper trough will cross
the Upper Ohio Valley region Friday, as surface high pressure
begins to build in. Any morning showers will end, with dry and
cooler weather then expected.
A ridge is then progged to build across the Upper Ohio Valley
region Saturday and Sunday, with mainly dry and warmer weather
expected. Ensembles then indicate moisture and shortwave
supported lift will track from SW-NE along the northern
periphery of the ridge Sunday night and Monday. Operational
models differ on the timing of these shortwaves, the strength
of the ridge, and the resulting placement of the precipitation.
Stayed close to the ensemble blend to account for the
uncertainty, which results in chance POPs returning to the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will continue overnight.
A crossing warm front will bring a slight chance of light rain
late morning/early afternoon to FKL/DUJ. Cigs should drop to
between 4kft and 9kft during this time. Latest HREF guidance
shows 30% probabilities for MVFR cigs at FKL/DUJ, decreasing to
the south, and NBM guidance has single digit probabilities for
the same. Any precipitation would be light.
.Outlook...
Cloud coverage will lessen behind the front with VFR persisting
through Wednesday under the influence of high pressure. There
is a chance for low- level wind shear overnight into Wednesday
morning north of KPIT.
Restriction chances increase Thursday afternoon into Friday with
a crossing cold front.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A few locations could approach, or break, record high
temperatures through Thursday.
Record High Temperatures / Forecast High
Tue October 29:
KPHD: 76/2016 77
KZZV: 81/1900 78
Wed October 30:
KDUJ: 73/1971 71
KHLG: 78/1942 76
KPHD: 77/2009, 1971 76
Thu October 31:
KPIT: 79/1950, 1976 77
KDUJ: 72/2003 74
KMGW: 80/1896 79
KHLG: 78/1950, 1933 78
KPHD: 77/1971 78
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...88
CLIMATE...
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 4:10 AM EDT---------------
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