JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 4:42 AM EDT556
FXUS63 KJKL 290842
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
442 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather persists through mid-week.
- There is an increasing chance for a more widespread, wetting
rainfall to occur from late Thursday through Friday morning as a
cold front moves through the area.
- Temperatures moderate to about 10 to 15 degrees above normal
through mid-week, then cool back to near normal on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024
Upper ridging amplifies into a cut-off high over the Southeast US
later today into tonight before moving to the Eastern Seaboard
Wednesday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper trough over the Western US
ejects onto the plains with an intensifying surface low and front
which will help to produce a strong pressure gradient over the
Central US and Midwest through the short term. Eastern Kentucky
will becoming increasingly under the influence of the increasing
pressure gradient and thus winds, especially toward the end of
the short term period Wednesday afternoon.
Warm and dry conditions are expected with today and Wednesday with
good afternoon mixing in the afternoons resulting in gusts in the 10
to 15 mph range today, with perhaps a few gusts approaching 20 mph
toward the Bluegrass region and west of Interstate 75 Wednesday.
Highs today will only be a few degrees below records, with
Wednesday's highs possibly reaching records around 80 degrees, with
London having the best chance of tying or setting a new daily
record Wednesday (80 degrees is the current record at KLOZ.)
As for tonight's weather, fog is the biggest question mark and will
be dependent on if the atmosphere is able to fully decouple given
the increasing pressure gradient across the region. This forecast
package went with the assumption that fog will develop primarily in
the more sheltered river valleys. With ridging over the area,
ridgetops may be as much as 10 to 12 degrees warmer than the
sheltered valleys, with lows ranging from around 48 to near 60
degrees, with less of a temperature difference where the
atmosphere fails to totally decouple.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 442 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024
Model guidance shows a ridge of high pressure encompassing much of
the eastern seaboard of the U.S. with an attached 592-high, on
Thursday. Looking west, an upper level low and attached cold
front progress eastward over the central plains, as the trough
that spawned the low over the Intermountain west, lifts towards
the north and east.
Above average daytime temperatures can be expected on Thursday.
In addition to an exiting ridge of high pressure, southerly flow
out ahead of an approaching cold front will cause warmer air to
advect into the area. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s across
eastern Kentucky with breezy southwesterly winds, 5-15 mph
gusting up to 25 mph at times. As the cold front moves through the
area, winds will become more westerly. Current guidance suggests
a 75% chance that amounts of rain will range from 0.20-0.55
inches of rain Thursday through the early part of Friday. There
certainly can be localized higher amounts in any persistent
storms. There's also a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday
night roughly along and west of Interstate 75. Lows are expected
to dip into the mid to lower 50s across the area. Post-frontal,
temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 60s, likely stopping
shy of that benchmark, on Friday. Winds will be lighter,
generally under 5 mph out of the north. Low temperatures Friday
night are forecasted to cool off under light winds, with ridges in
the 30s, and ridgetops in the low to mid 40s.
While the cold front exits the area to the south and east, late
Friday, a strengthening trough in the Pacific Northwest will
progress and deepen throughout the day Saturday. Models suggest
another cold front developing across the central plains Saturday
evening. With an area of high pressure across the southeast,
temperatures across Kentucky will gradually recover Saturday
through Tuesday, getting back into the 70s by Sunday. However, the
next chances of rain returns Sunday afternoon and beyond. There's
currently model discrepancies on timing and progression of this
system and it will continue to be monitored.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024
VFR flight conditions will hold at the TAF sites through the
period with the occasional passage of high clouds. Look for the
winds to be generally between 3-5 kts during the remainder of the
overnight period. These still appear strong enough to keep the
boundary layer mixed out in most areas, with the possible
exception of our most sheltered eastern valleys, generally
discouraging widespread development of early morning fog
- but it will show up and be patchy near bodies of water.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 4:42 AM EDT---------------
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