LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 11:54 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...052
FXUS64 KLIX 210454
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1154 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Same song different dance as far as the forecast is concerned
through the short term period. Deep layer ridging throughout the
atmospheric column will continue to bring ample subsidence, low
humidity, and gradually warming temperatures to the forecast area.
Temperature spread remains small through Tuesday night, and have
stuck with the deterministic output of the NBM for temperatures
and dewpoints. This results in highs warming slightly above
average into the low to mid 80s on Monday and Tuesday. With low
dewpoints, clear skies, and light winds in place, overnight lows
will cool a good 25 to 30 degrees each night. Temperatures will
generally range from the upper 40s and lower 50s across the
northern third of the forecast area to the upper 50s and lower 60s
along the Louisiana coast each night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
A bit of troughing across the Great Lakes and Northeast will lead
to the ridge axis shifting further west toward Texas and the
Southern Plains. However, the ridge will also broaden and this
will keep the region under the influence of deep layer subsidence
through the upcoming weekend. As winds remain largely from the
north and east through the period, little in the way of low level
moisture return is expected. This means that dewpoints remain low
and humidity values suppressed through the period. The continued
subsidence aloft will also gradually warm the entire atmospheric
column, and temperatures are expected to run between 5 and 10
degrees above average through the entire long term period. Highs
will climb into the mid to upper 80s, and confidence is decently
high on this as model spread is limited during this period. With
clear skies, light winds, and low humidity in place, overnight
lows will continue to cool 25 to 30 degrees on average, and this
will lead to low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s across
Southwest Mississippi to the mid 60s along the Louisiana coast
each night. Once again, model spread remains fairly close
together, so deterministic values of the NBM were used for the
temperature forecast later this week. The conditions look great
for all of the music fans in town next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
VFR conditions are expected for all terminals for the whole
forecast period. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Improving conditions are expected across the waters tonight into
tomorrow as the pressure gradient across the Gulf continues to
ease in response to the dissipation of a tropical system in
Central America. Small craft advisories remain in place for some
of the open Gulf water zones tonight as winds near 20 knots and
seas of 7 to 8 feet persist. As the high to the north turns more
dominant tomorrow, winds will decrease to less than 15 knots over
all of the waters and seas will begin to subside. Very benign
boating conditions will be in place from Wednesday through the
upcoming weekend as high pressure resides directly over the waters
resulting in light winds of less than 10 knots and seas of less
than 3 feet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 49 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 52 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 49 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 54 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 49 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ552-555-570-
572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...PG
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 11:54 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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