CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 9:16 PM EDT840
FXUS61 KCLE 310116
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves east across the area Thursday night
as low pressure passes through the northern Great Lakes. High
pressure will build into the region on Friday and Saturday
before departing to the east coast on Sunday. A warm front will
lift north across the region on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM Update...
Given the continuous warm air advection, brought the overnight
lows in the eastern zones up a couple degrees closer to 60F.
Winds on the increase again towards morning.
Previous Discussion...
Gusty southwest winds of around 25-30 mph continue for a few
more hours this afternoon before dissipating tonight. Warm
temperatures well above normal continue as the forecast area
remains within the warm sector through the day tomorrow (see
climate section below for record temperature information).
Upper-level trough and associated surface low approach from the
west, making its way across the Great Lakes region tonight and
tomorrow. A strong low-level jet moves overhead tomorrow, though
thickening cloud cover and afternoon showers could limit surface
wind potential. Even so, soundings suggest some boundary layer
mixing late morning into the early afternoon hours with the 12Z
HREF mean wind forecast showing good potential for 35-45 mph
wind gusts. There is still some potential for the need of a
wind advisory along and west of I-71, and especially along the
I-75 corridor. Additionally, there is some potentially for some
wind to accompany afternoon/evening showers that develop and
move eastward across the area. Best timing looks to be 18-22Z
west of I-71, and then 22-01Z east of I-71. It won't necessarily
be a continuous rain for the entire afternoon/evening, but there
is a very high likelihood of rain showers and wind impacting the
evening trick-or-treating. But hey, at least it won't be
freezing and snowing!
The accompanying cold front will move across the area tomorrow
evening, with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes on Friday. Colder
air will advect in on northwest winds on Friday causing lake effect
clouds for the Snowbelt region. There could be a couple isolated
lake effect showers or sprinkles. High temperatures on Friday will
range from the lower to upper 50s. Lingering lake effect clouds will
scatter out by Friday evening. The center of high pressure will pass
near by Friday night. Clear skies and light winds will allow low
temps Friday night to fall into the lower to upper 30s away from
lakeshore. High pressure will remain in control of Saturday's
weather with mostly sunny skies and seasonable high temps in the
middle 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deep upper level trough will move out from the Western CONUS into
the Central Plains Sunday through early next week. On Sunday, a warm
front will lift northward across the area. Skies will become cloudy
with rain showers likely. Sunday's temperatures will range from the
upper 50s to middle 60s. Likely rain chances or POPs will stay in
the forecast Sunday night into Monday. We will be in the warm sector
ahead of the next cold front by Tuesday with lower rain chances.
High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s. The
next cold front will move through late Tuesday night into Wednesday
with rain showers likely and an isolated thunderstorm chance. The
weather will turn cooler by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Winds and wind gusts continue to be the focus of the TAFs this
evening. Southwest winds will increase again over the next
several hours to around 15kts. Will again place some LLWS,
generally after 06Z tonight through mid morning Thursday until
better mixing can occur. Gusts will commence, and will be in
the 25-35kt range prior to cold frontal passage. Line of gusty
showers expected after 20Z. Some isolated gusty showers possible
prior to this line, but not enough confidence for the TAF at
this time. Keeping the ceilings VFR although should come down to
3-5kft with the showers moving through.
Outlook...Non-VFR is possible Thursday night with rain showers.
Non-VFR also possible with scattered rain showers Sunday
through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
The ongoing Small Craft Advisory will continue through Friday due to
strong, gusty winds over the lake. Southwest winds at 15 to 25 knots
will continue this afternoon and tonight. The southwest winds will
increase to 20 to 30 knots by Thursday morning with becoming
westerly Thursday night. There could be some gusts up to 35
knots during this time. There may be a small window for near
gale force winds during frontal passage in the eastern basin
Thursday night. Due to the strong southwest winds over the
basin, water levels may fall near or below the critical mark for
safe marine navigation over the western end of Lake Erie
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
Winds will shift out of the northwest behind the front and subside
to 15 kts on Friday. High pressure builds in over the Great Lakes
and the winds will be variable and weaken further to less than 10
kts Saturday through Sunday. On Sunday a warm front will lift north
across Lake Erie making the predominant winds be out of the south
and then gradually strengthen to 10-15 kts by Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record Warm High Temperatures:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-30 77(1971) 80(1927) 79(1950) 77(1900) 75(1999) 79(1946)
10-31 80(1950) 78(1950) 82(1950) 79(1950) 78(1933) 76(1927)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>145.
Low Water Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
LEZ142>144-162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...26/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Griffin
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 9:16 PM EDT---------------
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