IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 12:47 PM EDT582
FXUS63 KIWX 281647
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1247 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record or record highs expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Elevated fire danger for grass and field fires Tuesday and
Wednesday due to strong winds, and widespread drought
conditions.
- Best chances for rain arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
Mid level ridging takes over and suppresses any precipitation
chances through the day today. A low level jet incrementally pushes
into the forecast area today and could see a few 20 mph gusts west
of IN-15, but mixing heights are fairly shallow so think they'll be
fewer and further between. Expect temperatures to be a little warmer
today with highs in the 60s as opposed to yesterday's either side of
60 degrees. Dew points in the 30s, combined with the diurnal
temperature curve will allow for 25 to 35 MinRH values. Fuel
moisture has been trending lower across the area and, given
sparse data across the area, wouldn't be surprised if there
were drier areas than what the 10 hr fuel moisture plot shows.
Today is actually showing up as higher fire weather risk than
Tuesday is on the GHWO plot for whatever it's worth. A warm
front pushes into Michigan tonight and, collocated with an area
of moisture advection, may be able to produce an area of rain
that falls especially along and north of US-6 mainly during the
6 to 12z time frame tonight. Tuesday sees higher dew points (50
degrees as opposed to 30 degrees) as warm advection continues to
push the moisture plume northeast all the way into southeast
Canada. Both Monday and Tuesday have 4-5C/km low level lapse
rates and that limits how much mixing can occur. As such, am
skeptical we get the dew point-tanking mixing that creates the
hazardous fire weather scenario. The winds will be higher
Tuesday, though, with 30 to 40 mph winds possible. Both days
have characteristics that could make them conducive to fire
weather conditions. The core of the low level jet lifts
northward as a deepening surface low moves northward into south
central Canada along a front slowly approaching from the west.
This reduces wind gusts for Wednesday slightly when compared to
Tuesday with more like upper 20s to low 30s mph gusts possible.
80 degree highs will still be on the docket so expect a similar
day to Tuesday on Wednesday with slightly weaker wind gusts.
Between Tuesday and Thursday, a trough across the western CONUS
undergoes a cyclonic wave break as the pattern slows down. The
aforementioned cold front slinks eastward and reaches the area
later Wednesday night and continues into Thursday. Looks like
instability is still struggling with less than 300 J/kg of
MUCAPE available, especially since this is arriving late night
and early morning. Storm motions are fast as well. It's a shame
because we need the rain and we have the columnar moisture with
2 to 3 SDs above normal PWATs. The best forcing has around maybe
8 or 9 hours of residence time between ~8 to ~17z Thursday.
So, what does this mean for Halloween and trick or treaters? Winds
gusts will start the day gusty, between 25 and 35 mph before falling
off through the day as the front moves through. So, lighter
Halloween decorations may need to wait until the evening to be put
out. Rain looks to be out of areas west of I-69 and perhaps even for
areas farther east. One thing to watch here may be that lake-
enhanced precipitation could dampen festivities down wind of Lake
MI. Temperatures are expected to achieve 60 to 70 degrees ahead
of the cold front, but will be falling into the 50s for areas
west of IN-15 during Trick or Treat time.
Friday and Saturday look to be dry again as surface high pressure
follows the departing area of low pressure. Then, a trough digs
across the western CONUS again and a subtropical high sets up
allowing a stream of moisture to come up towards the area for as
early as Saturday into Sunday. Times of off and on rain may continue
into the next work week given the stalled pattern look.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Few changes were needed for the 18Z TAFs, although I did update
wind speeds and go slightly higher on the wind gusts for
Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites
through the period, with a warm front lifting north overnight.
There is high confidence in LLWS towards 06-12Z Tuesday as winds
begin to increase. Southerly winds will be sustained near 20
kts with gusts as high as 30 to 35 kts possible, especially
after 12Z Tuesday and into the afternoon hours.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 12:47 PM EDT---------------
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