JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 10:52 AM EDT003
FXUS63 KJKL 281452 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1052 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather persists through mid-week; our next chance of rain
arrives late Thursday with a cold front.
- Temperatures moderate to ~10-15 degrees above normal for
Wednesday and Thursday, before cooling back to near normal on
Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2024
Surface high pressure to our east-northeast. Otherwise, regional
satellite loops shows a significant return of moisture back into
the Commonwealth from the Deep South as well as streaming Cirrus
into the region from the northwest. Surface observations,
including data from the Kentucky Mesonet is showing a slower start
to temperatures this morning than originally advertised. Blended
in recent and current observations, leading to a bit of a slower
increase in the diurnal trend through the morning time frame. In
general, highs looks good right now. Will evaluate any adjustments
to afternoon highs with the mid-day update. Zones have been
updated to remove morning fog. No other adjustments to the
forecast package at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 805 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2024
Temperature observations were blended into the forecast;
otherwise no significant changes were made in this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2024
Current satellite shows a low stratus deck advecting in from the
south, along with the typical river valley fog development.
Ceilings continue to lower across the KY-TN border, east of the
Escarpment. This deck of low stratus clouds are expected to
continue its northward progression through the morning, reducing
visibilities in places. At current, no headline products are
expected, however conditions continue to be closely monitored.
This stratus deck is expected to mix out by late morning/midday
along with the river valley fog. This will result in mostly sunny
skies, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight's model
guidance, including 5th percentile NBM, appears to be too warm
when trying to resolve low temperatures in eastern Kentucky
valleys. Valleys are expected to decouple this evening under
southerly flow, leading to light winds and with mostly clear
skies. This evidence suggests low temperatures could drop lower
than model guidance. Valleys are forecasted to drop into the
lower to mid 40s, with ridgetops remaining in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. River valley fog is expected to develop this evening and
mix out by mid-morning Tuesday.
Tuesday, a high builds in from the south, leading to rising heights
and warmer temperatures. Highs are forecasted to be in the upper
70s, reaching possibly 80 in a few select places.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2024
The 28/00z model suite analysis beginning Tuesday evening shows an
~590 dam high centered directly over the Southern/Central
Appalachians. A ridge extends from the high northeastward to over
the St. Lawrence Valley and further northward to over Baffin Island.
This high aloft reflected at the surface by a strong ~1035 mb high
centered over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia. Upstream, a high
amplitude upper level trough extends from western Nunavut southward
to the Desert Southwest. East of the trough, a robust cold front
extends from an ~985 mb low northwest of the Hudson Bay southward to
over the Upper Great Lakes and then southwestward to along/over the
Southern Rockies. Another upper level ridge of axis extends from
the West Coast states up into Canadian Rockies, just east of a
deep ~520 dam low over the North Pacific.
The strong surface high and parent upper level high/ridge shift
eastward to off the Atlantic Seaboard by Wednesday night, making way
for the cold front and parent upper level trough to approach the
Ohio Valley. Southwesterly return flow increases through Thursday
afternoon with BUFKIT mixed layer momentum transfer values peaking
between 20 and 30 knots. The cold front/trailing trough moves
through the Ohio Valley on Thursday night into at least the first
half of Friday accompanied by widespread showers. The LREF shows
a 60 to 90% chance for a wetting rainfall (0.1 inch or greater)
across eastern Kentucky with the highest probabilities over the
Bluegrass and lowest near the Virginia/Kentucky border. Ridging,
both aloft and at the surface, then builds over the Ohio Valley
late Friday through Saturday, ushering another dry air mass across
the Commonwealth. A high amplitude trough, evolving in part from
the aforementioned North Pacific low, becomes firmly established
over the Western CONUS by Sunday. Meanwhile, a warm front develops
and lifts northward across the Ohio Valley Saturday night/Sunday
as a south southwesterly return flow develops behind the departing
surface high pressure ridge.
Sensible weather features mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures
on Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80. It will be
breezy with southwesterly gusts of 15 to 20 mph expected
midday/afternoon. Nighttime lows range from the mid 40s/upper 50s
and lower 50s/lower 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday nights,
respectively; coolest readings in sheltered valleys and warmest
readings on thermal belt ridges. Thursday begins mostly sunny and
warms quickly into the mid 70s to lower 80s before clouds thicken.
Winds will also pick up quickly after sunrise with gusts of 20 to 30
mph likely. A few gusts up to 35 mph cannot be ruled out, primarily
over the Bluegrass. Showers are forecast to arrive from the
northwest late in the day and continue through much of Thursday
night before tapering off quickly early Friday with the passage of
the cold front. Fair weather returns for the remainder of the
forecast period. Temperatures initially retreat to near normal, low
to mid 60s for highs, on Friday but then warm back above normal
during the upcoming weekend, topping out in the mid 70s for most
locations by Sunday afternoon. Nighttime lows dip back into 40s for
most locations on Friday and Saturday nights. Fog can be expected in
the typically prone valley locations on most nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2024
A layer of low-level moisture, in the form of a low stratus deck,
has made it way into the areas along the KY-TN border including
the Cumberland River Basin. Upstream observations are improving,
however visibility has been observed under 1/2 mile. Sites SME and
LOZ have seen these low stratus decks on station and will see
conditions moving in and out of IFR or LIFR as a result through
15Z or so. A tempo group has been added for each site. After the
stratus deck mixes out late this morning/early this afternoon,
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. Light and variable
winds around 5 knots or less are expected through the forecast
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 10:52 AM EDT---------------
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