LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 7:27 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...011
FXUS63 KLMK 292327
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
727 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy and dry with above normal temperatures through Wednesday.
* Widespread rain Thursday into Thursday night, with rainfall
amounts either side of a half inch. Slight chance for thunder and
gusty winds, but will remain sub-severe.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
A large upper ridge remains over the eastern third of the country.
At the surface, under the ridge, high pressure stretches down the
East Coast and back west over the Gulf Coast states. Farther west,
over eastern Colorado, a surface low sits. It's the pressure
gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley between the two surface features
that is driving the gusty warm air advection. Temperatures are close
to peaking with most area temperatures in the upper 70s with a few
in the low 80s.
Tonight, expect more of the same. Some elevated cloud cover will
stream overhead on upper level flow, but we should remain well mixed
with south winds around 7-10 mph with gusts to near 15 mph. This
will limit cooling with temperatures only falling into the mid 50s
to low 60s.
Tomorrow will be much like today as the overall pattern slides
slightly eastward. This will keep south winds around 10 mph with
gusts to near 20 mph over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Some continued cloud cover could limit warming some, but
temperatures will still make it into the upper 70s to around 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Unseasonably warm and deep pre-frontal SW flow is expected Wednesday
night. Increasing clouds and south breezes will significantly limit
overnight cooling, with temps in the mid/upper 60s at daybreak Thu.
Upper low opens up as it kicks ENE from the Red River Valley of the
North, crossing Gitche Gumee Thu evening and driving a sfc cold
front into the Ohio Valley. Very high PWATs for this time of year
will support widespread showers along and ahead of the front, so
POPs are near categorical with the only uncertainty being whether
rain will fall before or after 0Z on Friday, with amounts either
side of a half inch. Lapse rates are not impressive, but a 50 kt low-
level jet will allow for isolated embedded thunderstorms, and the
potential to mix down some higher momentum air. Gusts should remain
sub-severe but 30-40 mph is on the table in some of the stronger
showers. Best rain chances are Thu afternoon west of I-65, and Thu
evening east of I-65.
Dry weather and more typical fall temperatures will follow Friday
into the weekend as a 1030-1034mb sfc high builds into the Great
Lakes. Trend from previous model runs continues to favor the high
winning out and the next system remaining well to our south and west
through at least Saturday. Upper ridge axis transits to our east by
Sat night, with southerly flow and above normal temps returning
Sunday.
Early next week the pattern will amplify as a deep upper trof digs
into the Four Corners area and ridging builds over the southeast
CONUS. POPs will ramp up slightly Mon-Tue to account for
uncertainty, but a strong meridional component will keep the more
widespread precip west of the Mississippi.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the current forecast
period. Winds are expected to settle to between 6-10 kt out of the
south overnight. With a 35-40 kt LLJ expected to develop after
midnight primarily over HNB, but also extending as far east as SDF,
have included what should be a fairly marginal mention of LLWS. Only
scattered to broken cirrus are expected to drift across the area
through the current forecast period, though it is worth noting some
model guidance shows lower stratus trying to develop near BWG and
RGA Wednesday morning. Tomorrow, winds should pick up once again out
of the S/SW with sustained winds of 10-15 kt and gusts of 20-25 kt
expected during the late morning and afternoon hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 7:27 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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