IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:15 PM EDT416
FXUS63 KIWX 262315
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
715 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool temperatures in the low 30s tonight and low to mid 30s
tomorrow night are expected.
- A sharp warming trend can be expected Monday through Wednesday
with temperatures rising to near record highs around 80
Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday night into early
Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Leading ejecting wrn tough disturbance through the upper midwest/wrn
Great Lakes late Thu deamplifies in time as it quickly pivots
through New England. Incipient but partially modified GOMEX moisture
return does temper with ern extent as overall depth of upper trough
relaxes. However do hold out hope that this sys will spread rain
across most of the area unlike the last 2 systems. Timing into
the local area favors late Wed night/early Thu morning timing
yet climatologically does not bode well for a much need sig rain
event. Otherwise ahead of this lead sys expect near record
temps both Tue and Wed as unseasonably warm low level thermal
trough develops into the wrn OH valley/srn Great Lakes.
Thereafter wrn trough reloads in response to inland progression
of piecewise epac wave train with more formidable secondary
wave ejecting out of the southern Rockies early next week.
Substantial model spread continues along with varying
intermodel inconsistencies all of which suggest hedging toward
a slower/deeper ejecting sys toward late Tue (D11) versus any
earlier. As such will adjudicate blended pops as desired to
reflect a preferred slower weighted ensemble blend for later
next weekend ahead of this deep sys.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Weak shortwave passing through the region will bring increasing
high clouds overnight but low levels remains very dry and VFR
conditions will persist. Light northerly winds will gradually
veer through the night becoming southerly on Sunday but
remaining below 10 kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:15 PM EDT---------------
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