PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 2:10 PM CDT945
FXUS63 KPAH 271910
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another day of seasonable temperatures and clear skies
expected today. Temperatures warming back up early next week.
- Next best chance for widespread, meaningful rain comes on
Thursday.
- Back to cooler temperatures to end the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
Today has been seasonable and dry with a light east wind as we
sit close to the center of a surface high pressure ridge. That
ridge will shift to the east tomorrow as southerly winds begin
to increase. Moisture streams in on those winds but dry air off
the surface will likely mix dewpoints down in the afternoon.
Wind gusts will pick up into the 10-15 mph range and be a little
higher on Tuesday, probably nosing into the 20-25 mph range by
the afternoon with warm temperatures. Drier 850-925 mb air looks
to lower dewpoints in the afternoon and wind/RH conditions may
approach more elevated levels, although they appear short of red
flag conditions.
Breezy conditions continue on Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance
is is strong agreement with a front approaching and passing
during the day Thursday. PoPs are high with rainfall amounts
somewhere in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range looking most likely.
Some thunder will be possible but the setup is fairly stable
overall. However we will have to watch the injection of some
62-65 degree dewpoints just ahead of the front that could
generate a bit of surface-based instability. Timing for trick-
or-treat could prove tricky, although the trend does seem to
have the heavier rain clearing the region before late afternoon
and evening with the Hopkinsville-Murray area holding on the
best chances through early evening. Cool air will be moving in
from the northwest behind the cold front with temperatures
starting to nose into the upper 40s.
A fairly cool Friday gives into a warm and potentially more
unsettled pattern through the weekend. Nothing especially
significant appears to be in place by then but a large and
strong upper trough builds in over the intermountain west by
Sunday in both GFS/ECMWF 12z deterministic and ensemble
solutions and that trough holds strong while ejecting shortwaves
ahead of it which typically results in a fairly stormy pattern
for the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Light to
moderate east winds is expected through the day, calming
tonight. Somewhat stronger south winds are expected Monday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 2:10 PM CDT---------------
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