IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 3:04 PM EDT576
FXUS63 KIND 271904
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record warmth Tuesday and Wednesday along with wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph
- Rain expected for Halloween, most likely period of rain during the
morning to afternoon
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
Spectacular fall weather continues this afternoon as central Indiana
enjoys sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. 18Z temps ranged
from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
The surface high will remain as the primary feature influencing
weather across the Ohio Valley into Monday. The center of the high
will shift east over the next 24 hours which will enable return
southerly flow to commence by Monday afternoon. This in tandem with
expanding ridging aloft will start the temperature rises that will
culminate with near record warming for the forecast area Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Cloudless skies will continue for the rest of the afternoon and most
if not all of tonight with broad subsidence in place across the
entire area. RH values have dropped into the 25-35% range this
afternoon but the lack of of stronger winds is largely mitigating
overall fire danger concerns. Predominant southeast winds will back
subtly and diminish to less than 5mph for tonight...setting the
stage for another frosty start early Monday over parts of central
Indiana.
The return flow begins in earnest on Monday with a subtle uptick in
moisture advection in advance of a warm front that will lift into
the mid Mississippi Valley by the evening. Mid and high clouds will
be more prevalent by Monday afternoon and there is even some
potential for a bit of diurnal cu as well with the moisture
advecting into the area from the southwest. Surface winds will back
to southeast by late day in response to the approaching warm front.
A tightening pressure gradient will enable some gusts at 15-20mph
over the Wabash Valley by mid to late afternoon as well.
Temps...nudged low temps down a couple degrees from the blend as
ideal radiational cooling conditions in tandem with the antecedent
dry conditions...noted by the dewpoints dropping lower than model
guidance...will likely enable temps to fall into the lower to mid
30s over much of the forecast area by daybreak Monday. The Indy
metro will stay a bit warmer with the light easterly flow bringing
modified air off the city. LOw level thermals support highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s for much of the area on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
The long term period will start off warm and breezy. Broad ridging
aloft will become more amplified through midweek while southerly
flow at the surface will bring WAA and potentially record breaking
warm temperatures. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be
in the low 80s. Pressure gradients will tighten up as the ridge
amplifies and a trough approaches from the west, leading to a jet
setting up to the NW of the area and breezy conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Gusts of around 35 mph will be possible at times
for the first few days of the long term, with highest winds expected
across the north. Can't quite rule out slightly elevated fire
weather conditions for the first few days given how dry the ground
is with winds, but Min RH values improving to around 40-50% which
should help.
A surface low and associated cold front will bring likely showers
and thunderstorms on Halloween, with rain moving in from the west
during the early morning hours and pushing eastward through the day.
Guidance has been pushing up the timing of the rain the last few
runs. If that sped up timing comes to fruition, some areas, mainly
northwest of I-69, could have the rain end before trick or treating
begins. Still not fully confident on when rain comes to an end in
regards to trick or treating, but more confident that rain should
exit the forecast area by around midnight at the latest per current
guidance.
Cooler and drier air will settle back in behind the front, leading
to highs near 60 again for Friday. Afterwards highs will slowly warm
the rest of the weekend with a return to more southerly winds. There
will also be a slight chance of rain again over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high
pressure remains draped across the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
primarily from the southeast through the afternoon backing slightly
and diminishing tonight under clear skies.
The high will shift further east on Monday allowing for return flow
from the south to establish and increase over the region. There will
be an increase in cirrus with also the potential for at least some
diurnal cu as moisture slowly advects into the region.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 3:04 PM EDT---------------
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