ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 9:42 PM EDT568
FXUS61 KILN 250142
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
942 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push to the east tonight. A cold front will
push through Friday into Friday night. High pressure and cooler
temperatures will return for the weekend before a warming trend
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Mainly clear skies will persist through most of the nighttime
before mid/high clouds move in during the predawn hours. Could
see perhaps a few sprinkles in WC OH and EC IN prior to the end
of the near term period, but expect that most of the ISO/SCT SHRA
activity will hold off until near/after daybreak.
Good radiational cooling conditions should continue through the
first half of the night and temps will continue to drop fairly
quickly into the 40s (with mid/upper 30s favored in
central/south-central OH and NE KY where winds will remain
lightest and skies the clearest a bit longer). Near/W of I-75,
however, temps should plateau a bit in the mid 40s past about
09z as better cloud cover begins to overspread the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
There will be scattered showers that work through the area
during the morning hours on Friday. These will then push to the
east and there will be a decrease in precipitation and brief
decrease in cloud cover. This will allow for temperatures to
climb into the 60s and 70s before additional clouds move into
the region.
An approaching cold front will bring additional shower activity.
There is some low end instability and therefore do have some
thunder in the forecast across some of the area. As this feature
works through temperatures will drop and lows will drop into the
40s. Some residual cloud cover will keep temperatures from
dropping off more Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure moves across the Ohio Valley this weekend bringing
seasonable temperatures and mostly clear skies. The surface high
shifts east of the area by Monday. Strong, persistent southwesterly
flow develops west of the high through at least mid week. Above
average temperatures, ridging, and increasing humidity accompany the
southwesterly winds. Rain chances start increasing toward the second
half of the week when upper level support and a trough start
encroaching from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKC should prevail through the first part of the TAF period
before some mid/high clouds begin to filter in from the W/NW
past by/past 09z. Some ISO/SCT SHRA are expected along a WAA
wing moving W to E through the area between about 11z-15z. The
best coverage of activity should focus near KDAY/KCMH/KLCK
(where TEMPO SHRA has been included), but suppose a brief SHRA
will be possible just about anywhere. There should be a
break/lull in the pcpn before additional SCT activity develops
along a NE-to-SW axis by/past 21z. Although the pcpn should be
more cohesive in nature with the late afternoon/evening
activity, it will still be somewhat scattered in nature. This
will be associated with the actual front itself, with some brief
ISO activity possible in the immediate post-frontal environment
as well.
CIGs should remain VFR through 21z, but will approach MVFR
toward/beyond the end of the valid TAF period. Light SE winds at
5kts or less through daybreak will go out of the SW at 10-12kts
past 15z or so. Winds at 12-15kts, with gusts to 15-20kts, will
go out of the NW by/past 00z in the post-frontal environment.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible late tonight into Saturday
morning. Gusty winds are possible on Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 9:42 PM EDT---------------
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