IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:33 AM EDT110
FXUS63 KIND 250633
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
233 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a a few thunderstorm
will move across central Indiana today as a frontal system moves
through. Most areas will see less than a quarter inch.
- Near record warmth Tuesday and Wednesday
- Rain likely for Halloween
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Upper air analysis and H20 vapor imagery were showing an upper
trough progressing eastward across the Missouri Valley while surface
analysis and obs were showing an associated frontal system over that
area as well. Meanwhile, MRMS reflectivity data was showing
widespread convection extending from northeastern Wisconsin to
northern Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma. This convection was
occurring in a warm advection regime fed by a 40 knot level jet with
75+ percentile PWATS to 1.4 inches, steep mid level lapse rates and
weak instability. As this system moves east today, the convection
will likely weaken and become less widespread as the low level jet
loses steam. Still, think at least 60% of the upper Wabash Valley
will see some rain after 4 AM. Based on instability progs, should
only see some isolated thunder overnight into this afternoon. The
showers should diminish and end this afternoon from northwest to
southeast as the cold front moves through. DESI grand ensemble QPF
suggest most areas will see less than a quarter inch of rain today,
although wouldn't rule out slightly higher amounts in localized
stronger convection.
Hi-Res soundings are showing good drying tonight in the wake of the
cold front, as surface high pressure builds in. So, confidence is
high in at least partial clearing and passing cirrus in the fast
northwest flow overhead.
With some clearing and northwest winds, temperatures should have no
problem slipping into the 40s overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Saturday Through Wednesday.
Northerly flow will bring a return to normal temperatures Saturday
into Sunday as high pressure builds in the aftermath of the frontal
passage that is expected today. This high pressure will bring dry
and quiet weather for the weekend along with mostly clear to clear
skies. The pattern will begin to shift Monday into Tuesday as a
broad upper level ridge begins to develop which will bring an end to
the northerly flow by Monday morning and lead to increasingly warmer
temperatures through the middle of the week.
Ensembles are suggesting that there is a decent potential for
temperatures of 80 degrees or higher along the Wabash Valley and
looking at the forecast soundings, those probabilities may be on the
lower end with the ongoing dry conditions leading to a low bias on
high temperatures. In addition to the warmth, gusty winds will be a
concern with wind speeds of 40kts at the top of the boundary layer
Tuesday and Wednesday which will allow for gusts of 30-40 mph. There
will be a fair amount of moisture advection with these stronger
winds which should keep the afternoon RH high enough to limit the
fire weather threat.
Halloween.
Confidence continues to increase that a broad upper level trough
will bring widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures for
Halloween with the main question being the exact timing of the
frontal passage and associated rainfall with respects to evening
activities for Halloween. At 6 days out, there is still a fair
amount of uncertainty as to the timing, but there is good model
agreement at this time that rain looks likely during the evening
hours along with cooler temperatures. With the moisture advection
Tuesday and Wednesday, there looks to be at least some instability
which could allow for a few rumbles of thunder in the strongest
showers of the day. There isn't a ton of forcing with this front,
but there should be enough for at least a quarter of an inch of rain
which would be enough to keep the month from being the driest on
record.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1139 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Impacts:
- Scattered to numerous showers moving in after 07z at KLAF and KHUF
and after 10z at KIND and KBMG, thunderstorms can not be ruled out
- Non-convective Low level wind shear 09z-14z
- Wind 140-170 degrees less than 10 knots will shift to the west and
and northwest after 11-14z
Discussion:
Scattered to numerous showers along with isolated thunderstorms will
move in overnight with the best chances at KLAF before daybreak.
The convection will diminish will be ending this afternoon from
northwest to southeast.
Flying conditions will be VFR except perhaps MVFR in convection.
Winds will shift from southeast and then southwest and finally
northwest this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:33 AM EDT---------------
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