PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 6:25 PM CDT809
FXUS63 KPAH 242325
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record high temperatures are forecast Friday, but a cold
front will push into the region late in the day, bringing a
small chance of light rain.
- Dry and seasonably cool temperatures are forecast this weekend
as Canadian high pressure shifts southward into the region.
- A return of well above normal temperatures as well as breezy
southerly winds is expected to open the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
High pressure centered over the region will quickly translate
east of the area tonight into Friday. This will bring a shift
to warm southerly winds and an uptick in 850 mb temperatures to
around 15C. This will allow high temperatures will warm into the
lower to middle 80s, which will be near record high values for
late October. An 500 mb trough will move into the region as
well, bringing an increase in cloud cover and isolated to widely
scattered light rain showers for parts of southern IL and
southwest IN during the daytime hours. Time height cross-
sections show low RH values in the BL, so it will be a struggle
for rain to make it to the ground, if at all.
A surface cold front will push from NE to SE through the region
late in the day into the evening hours. Kept a small chance of
rain showers into the overnight hours along the TN/AR border
areas, but very light rainfall amounts are expected if any rain
actually does occur.
This weekend will see a return of sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures as Canadian high pressure shifts southeast
from the northern Great Plains to the Midwest. This will keep
high temperatures in the 65-70F range both days, with overnight
lows in the 37-42F range.
Warm southerly surface flow will return beginning Monday, as the
surface high moves east of the region. Gradient winds will pick
up as a more potent surface low organizes over the central Great
Plains. This will allow high temperatures to return to the upper
70s to lower 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Given the
strong winds and dry fuels, there may be some fire weather
concerns during this time, despite dew point temperatures
creeping up into the 50-60F range.
Just beyond the seven day window, there is pretty good ensemble
agreement about a stronger disturbance that could potentially
bring some much-needed soaking rain. However, it could also
impact outdoor plans for Halloween. Stay tuned for updates on
that in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Some high
clouds are expected to move in tonight. Winds will be light and
variable before picking up tomorrow and shifting from southwest
to northwest with the passage of a front. LLWS is possible at
MVN around sunrise, and then there is the potential for a shower
or two at MVN as well in the morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 6:25 PM CDT---------------
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