JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 3:22 PM EDT166
FXUS63 KJKL 241922
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
322 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing cold front will bring increased rain and storm chances
to the area Friday afternoon and night.
- Temperatures will drop to near or slightly below normal for the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure is cresting
across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. There is good
agreement on the high pressure pushing east through the night ahead
of a cold front at the surface and mid-level trough axis noted in
the Northern Plains. This will leave eastern Kentucky with clear
skies and yet another potential ridge/valley split night. We will
see overnight lows drop into the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and
upper 30s to lower 40s on the ridges. The previously mentioned
trough axis will push eastward toward the Ohio Valley tomorrow and
this will help swing a cold front eastward. This will aid in
bringing a few showers in the 20-40 percent range mainly late
tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. The CAMs are fairly anemic
with this activity and even the synoptic models are showing little
precipitation with these showers. The HREF shows less than a 15
percent chance of a tenth of an inch in most locations and synoptic
ensembles generally the same. Even so there remains a very low
chance (generally 20 percent) for a thunderstorm or two tomorrow
afternoon and early evening. Ahead of this front, expect
increasing clouds and southwest flow at the surface. This will
give way to a warm day across the area, with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. These highs will be running around 10-15 degrees
above normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
Still looking at mostly quiet weather in the extended, as high
pressure will be in control most of the time. We will see
scattered rain showers moving through the area on Saturday, as a
cold front moves through. Once this boundary and passed to our
east, a cooler air mass will be ushered in, which will lead to
below normal temperatures over the weekend. Things will warm up
through out the week, as ample sunshine modifies the air mass, and
winds shift around to the south. Highs will be in the 70s during
the week, and may even peak in the upper 70s Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds will pick up and become gusty at times on
Wednesday and Thursday, as another area of low pressure approaches
from the west. No weather hazards are expected in the extended
portion of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
VFR will be the story through the period outside of some river
valley fog potential in a few spots late tonight into tomorrow
morning. This afternoon we are seeing a few cumulus develop in
northeast Kentucky and this could occasionally move across SYM and
SJS, but these are expected to stay just above MVFR levels at this
time. Outside that clear skies and light winds will be the story
under high pressure. A cold front approaches late tomorrow from
the northwest and this could lead to lower cigs by late tomorrow
into tomorrow night which are outside the TAF period at this
point.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 3:22 PM EDT---------------
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