ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:34 AM EDT992
FXUS61 KILN 230634
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
234 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold
front that moves through the area this afternoon. Due to limited
moisture this front will only produce a few sprinkles. High
pressure will lead to dry conditions with a temporary cool down
Thursday, followed by a warm up for the end of the week. A
second cold front will move through the region on Friday
offering a chance for rain. High pressure and cooler more
seasonal temperatures are on tap for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A mid level s/wv will continue to lift quickly to the northeast
into southern Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Any
light sprinkle activity has pretty much dissipated. Skies will
range from mostly clear to locally party cloudy as some
lingering mid clouds move east. Winds will generally be from the
south between 5 and 15 mph. Some local gusts will be possible
across our west central Ohio zones. Lows will generally range
from the lower to upper 50s, but a few 40s can not be ruled out
in our far east/southeast where wind flow will be the weakest
and some decoupling may occur.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Another system will move through Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Winds will once again gust with this system. Cannot
rule out a thin line of showers with this feature, however at
this time limited mention to sprinkles due to dry air and
uncertainty with precipitation measuring. While temperatures
will rise into the upper 60s to middle 70s, as the cold front
moves into the region temperatures will begin to drop. By
Thursday morning temperatures will drop into the 30s across most
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure moves across the Ohio Valley on Thursday bringing
fall- like conditions under mostly clear skies. The surface
high quickly shifts east on Thursday night ahead of a low
pressure system approaching from the west.
On Friday, rain chances increase as a warm front moves through
in the morning followed by a cold front in the afternoon/evening
while the low progresses across the region. Overall QPF is
fairly low and some locations may not see any rainfall at all.
Overall forcing and moisture return are not that strong.
High pressure builds in behind the cold front for the weekend
allowing for a return of fall temperatures to the Ohio Valley.
The cool down will be brief however since high pressure quickly
shifts east by Monday which will allow above average
temperatures and southerly winds to return.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
A mid level disturbance will quickly lift northeast across the
Great Lakes. A band of mid level clouds will offer a brief
ceiling between 7000 and 9000 feet. Winds will be from the
south between 5 and 15 knots. A modest low level jet of 40-45kts
pivoting across the area will bring a period of non convective
LLWS. This should shift east and dissipate around 13Z.
A mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes.
This will be accompanied by a cold front. The front is moisture
is limited with this system and only expect mid and high level
clouds, although a few high based cumulus clouds could form near
and behind the front for a brief period. A sprinkle is possible
with this frontal passage.
Winds will increase and veer from the southwest to the
northwest as the front passes. Sustained winds will increase
between 12 and 16 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Behind the front - surface high pressure will build into the
area Wednesday night, skies will clear and winds will diminish
and become northerly.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday into Friday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:34 AM EDT---------------
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