LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 9:46 PM EDT239
FXUS63 KLMK 220146
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
946 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Well above normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday with dry
weather.
* Midweek cold front to bring a return to near normal temperatures.
* Secondary cold front on Friday may bring a chance of rain showers
to the region Friday night with below normal temps for the
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
No significant forecast changes this evening. Sfc high pressure is
shifting off to the east, and we'll see a very light wind out of the
southeast overnight. Winds have gone calm already in many areas. The
cooler sites have already dipped into the upper 40s to lower 50s,
while warmer locations are closer to 60 F. Expect temps to continue
to drop into the 40s late tonight into early Tuesday. We will
likely see some patchy fog develop in the river valleys once
again early tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon continues to look quite
warm with strengthening SW low-level flow. Expect afternoon
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
Dominating sfc high pressure continues to keep clouds nonexistent
across a large portion of the region today. Temperatures have warmed
into the low to mid 70s, with winds remaining rather light. For
tonight, clear skycover and light winds will continue, leading to
excellent radiational cooling and chilly temps in the 40s again.
Patchy fog will again be an issue mainly for the river valleys, but
should see improving visibility not long after sunrise.
For tomorrow, the sfc high will finally shift a little more to the
east as an upper level shortwave tracks across the Midwest. With the
sfc high centered a little more to the east, we'll tap into a warmer
return flow regime. A cold front associated with the upper level
wave will be approaching the Ohio Valley throughout the day, and a
tightening sfc pressure gradient in the pre-frontal airmass will
result in our southwesterly winds to become somewhat breezy in the
afternoon. This will amplify our WAA pattern, and will likely see
temps warm well into the upper 70s, with possibly some isolated
areas touching 80. Temps will be roughly 10 degrees above our
climate normals for this time of year, but no daily max temperature
records will be in jeopardy. We'll have some upper level clouds
around tomorrow too, but it'll still be a mostly sunny day.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
Tuesday Night through Thursday Night...
A weakening shortwave trough axis will move the Midwest and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night and into Wednesday. As this system races
off to the northeast, a weak frontal boundary will push into the
region Wednesday afternoon and pass to the south of the region by
Wednesday night with high pressure building back into the region for
Thursday. Moisture with the shortwave trough axis and the cold front
remain quite scant and the current forecast will remain dry through
this period.
Lows Tuesday night will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Highs
Wednesday will be above normal with readings in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s. Lows Wednesday night will be much cooler with temps
dropping back into the low-mid 40s. Cooler readings are expected for
Thursday with day time highs likely exhibiting a gradient across the
region. Highs in the mid 60s look likely over the Bluegrass region
with upper 60s and lower 70s south and west of a line from Jasper,
IN to Albany, KY. Thursday night readings will be a little more
mild than Wednesday night's with readings in the lower-mid 40s east
of I-65 and in the upper 40s to around 50 west of I-65.
Friday through Monday...
Surface high pressure from Thursday will move off to the east of the
region by Friday morning. This will place the region within a broad
southwesterly flow. Highs should rebound nicely on Friday with
afternoon readings topping out in the mid 70s over the Bluegrass to
the upper 70s/around 80 along and west of the I-65 corridor. As the
day wears on a weakening shortwave trough axis will push eastward
across the region. This feature may have a little more moisture to
work with to produce at least scattered rain showers late Friday and
into Saturday morning. The blended PoPs here have come up a bit and
overall coverage still looks to be about 30% or less. Colder air
will filter in behind this feature with overnight lows Friday night
dropping into the upper 40s to around 50.
For Saturday through Monday, high pressure will begin to build into
the region on Saturday and will maintain control of our weather
through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Highs on
Saturday will be near seasonal normals with readings in the mid-
upper 60s across southern IN and northern KY, with lower 70s across
southern KY. Lows Saturday night will drop back in the upper 30s to
around 40. Highs Sunday will be a bit cooler as stronger cold
advection comes into play. Highs Sunday afternoon will be in the
low-mid 60s over southern IN and into northern KY with upper 60s
mainly over the southern third of KY. Temps on Monday will rebound
a bit as we get back into a southerly flow pattern with highs in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
VFR conditions tonight and tomorrow. Strong sfc high pressure is
shifting east of KY this evening. Expect a very light SE wind (or
calm) with just a few high cirrus overnight. Sfc winds are forecast
to veer southerly and increase to around 5-6 kts shortly after
daybreak Tuesday. Low-level southwesterly flow will strengthen Tue
afternoon ahead of a cold front cutting southeast through portions
of the Plains and Upper Midwest. SW winds are forecast to increase
to near 10 kts, with occasional gusts to 15+ kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 9:46 PM EDT---------------
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