IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 9:14 PM EDT345
FXUS63 KIND 210114
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
914 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with warm daytime temperatures will continue through
Wednesday
- Frontal passage Wednesday will bring cooler temperatures Thursday
into Friday.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Another evening with clear skies and light winds continues as the
region resides under sprawling high pressure. 01Z temperatures
ranged from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
Forecast is in excellent shape for the overnight with tranquil
weather persisting. With yet another night with ideal radiational
cooling conditions...cannot entirely rule out localized fog towards
daybreak focused particularly in the river valleys over south
central Indiana. Otherwise temperatures will fall into the 40s.
Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
GOES-16 H20 vapor imagery was showing an upper low spinning across
northern New Mexico with a ridge over the Missouri Valley and subtle
trough across eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, surface analysis was
showing a broad ridge from New England to Oklahoma. This ridge and
an extremely dry column per Hi-Res soundings was continuing to
provide cloud-free skies over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley.
With the column being so dry and the full sunshine, temperatures
have soared into the upper 60s to middle 70s this afternoon.
Although, the RH has dropped to near 30% at some locations and fuel
moisture was approaching 8% at the RAWS sites, the lack of 20 foot
winds means the risk for wildfire spread is low the remainder of the
afternoon and with a similar setup tomorrow, wildfire spread will
again not be expected.
The upstream upper ridge will build in across the Ohio Valley
overnight and Monday and combined with the surface ridge still over
the area and Hi-Res soundings continuing to show a bone dry column
will result in another night of optimal radiational cooling and
another day of sunny skies and well above normal temperatures. With
the radiational cooling potential strong and based on previous
nights, will cut overnight lows several degrees with overnight lows
in the lower 40s or slightly cooler over rural areas and middle 40s
over urban ones. Meanwhile, with low level thermals showing a modest
uptick, will go with well above normal highs in the middle to upper
70s for Monday. These numbers are on the high side of DESI grand
ensemble 2m temperatures and around 10 degrees above normal for this
time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Monday Night Through Thursday.
Confidence continues to increase that the weak upper level trough
that is currently moving through the Four Corners region will weaken
as it crosses the Rockies into the Central Plains with little to no
chance for rain. There will be at least some high clouds that move
through Tuesday night, but otherwise expect no significant impacts.
A cold front associated with the system will then move through
Wednesday which will shift the wind direction from the southwest to
northwest. Overnight lows Wednesday night into Thursday and again
Thursday night into Friday are expected to drop into the upper 30s
with strong CAA in the aftermath of the frontal passage.
Friday Through Sunday.
A broad ridge of high pressure is expected to build across the
Appalachia region Friday into Saturday which will bring a return to
weak southerly flow and bring temperatures back to normal by Friday
and above normal for the weekend. Models begin to diverge on the
synoptic weather pattern Saturday into Sunday with at least some
signals for a stronger upper level trough to move through the
Northern Plains which could bring cooler and wetter conditions to
central Indiana late Saturday into Sunday, but there is little
support in the ensembles with the mean showing generally zonal flow.
Thus will keep low POPs in the forecast but have little confidence
in any rain with soundings showing a dry column ahead of the arrival
of the weak forcing associated with the system. Looking Monday and
beyond, the general pattern looks to favor warm and dry conditions
but later into the week the flow looks to become more amplified
which could bring better chances for rain.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 634 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Impacts:
- Minor potential for brief MVFR or worse conditions in shallow fog,
mainly at KBMG after 10z
Discussion:
High confidence in continued clear and dry conditions through Monday
evening as ridging and deep subsidence resides across the Ohio
Valley. Winds will be light and variable overnight...then transition
to S/SW at 5-10kts on Monday. There remains a small threat for brief
fog prior to daybreak Monday...primarily at KBMG.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 9:14 PM EDT---------------
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